Match Info

Premier League - Round 11

Date: 4 December 2025, Thursday


	Nairobi United		Mathare United

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.98	3.7
	1.99	2.92	3.84
	1.99	3.06	3.8	Watch
	1.8	3	4.33
	2.01	2.97	3.74
	2.05	2.85	3.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↑ (1.72)	2.96 ↓ (3.25)	3.85 ↓ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nairobi United
45.9%

Draw
30.5%

Mathare United
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

28%

19%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48%

25.3%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nairobi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nairobi United's form might have worsened.

Mathare United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mathare United than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Nairobi United - Mathare United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nairobi United (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 0 - 1, Kinyanjui P. ⚽,

Preview

In recent matches, Nairobi United has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mathare United's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mathare United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Nairobi United has had a series of home games.

In this match, Nairobi United is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Nairobi United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Nairobi United won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nairobi United
CAF Confederation Cup
30.11.25	Nairobi United - Maniema Union	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Wydad Casablanca - Nairobi United	3:0 ✺
Kenyan Premier League
08.11.25	Nairobi United - Kariobangi Sharks	4:2 ✺
04.11.25	Nairobi United - Bandari	3:1 ✺
01.11.25	Nairobi United - Sofapaka	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWWL
- Mathare United
Kenyan Premier League
22.11.25	Police FC - Mathare United	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Mathare United - Kakamega Homeboyz	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	APS Bomet - Mathare United	1:1 ✺
02.11.25	AFC Leopards - Mathare United	2:0 ✺
30.10.25	Mathare United - Gor Mahia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Super League
07.06.24	Nairobi United - Mathare United	2:3
15.11.23	Mathare United - Nairobi United	2:0

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