Match Info

Premier League - Round 14

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Tusker		Nairobi United

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.72	4.25
	1.9	2.76	4.55
	2.15	2.71	3.87	Watch
	1.85	2.7	4.5
	1.86	2.96	4.89
	1.86	2.83	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.16)	2.78 ↑ (2.75)	4.43 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tusker
47%

Draw
32.6%

Nairobi United
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.4%

33.3%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

32.2%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Nairobi United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nairobi United than the current prediction. (+3%)

Tusker - Nairobi United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Otiende K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 13).

Tusker has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nairobi United is going through a series of losses (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Tusker may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tusker might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Tusker - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 42.37%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
14.12.25	Sofapaka - Tusker	0:2 ✺
05.12.25	Tusker - Ulinzi Stars	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Mara Sugar - Tusker	0:1 ✺
22.11.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WWWLL
- Nairobi United
Kenyan Premier League
12.12.25	Nairobi United - Muranga Seal	1:1 ✺
08.12.25	Posta Rangers - Nairobi United	2:0 ✺
04.12.25	Nairobi United - Mathare United	0:1 ✺
CAF Confederation Cup
30.11.25	Nairobi United - Maniema Union	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Wydad Casablanca - Nairobi United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

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