Match Info

Premier League - Round 10

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3


	Gor Mahia		Tusker

	1	X	2
	1.98	2.82	4.05
	1.82	3.02	4.70	Watch
	1.97	2.79	4.26
	1.76	3	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.82)	2.91 ↓ (3.02)	4.44 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gor Mahia
48.3%

Draw
31.3%

Tusker
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

30.3%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

28.1%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gor Mahia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Tusker has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gor Mahia than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gor Mahia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tusker than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Gor Mahia - Tusker Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League (Qualification: ) and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gor Mahia won 2.

Gor Mahia is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tusker is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Gor Mahia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Gor Mahia is a strong favorite.

We predict that Gor Mahia will win today's game, with odds of 1.8.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gor Mahia won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 18:16. (average 0.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Gor Mahia won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Gor Mahia - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 50.25%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gor Mahia
Kenyan Premier League
09.11.25	Police FC - Gor Mahia	0:2 ✺
02.11.25	Gor Mahia - Ulinzi Stars	1:1 ✺
30.10.25	Mathare United - Gor Mahia	0:2 ✺
26.10.25	Gor Mahia - Posta Rangers	3:0 ✺
05.10.25	Kenya CB - Gor Mahia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 WTWWW
- Tusker
Kenyan Premier League
16.11.25	Tusker - Police FC	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Bidco United - Tusker	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Kakamega Homeboyz - Tusker	1:1 ✺
29.10.25	Tusker - Kariobangi Sharks	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Muranga Seal - Tusker	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Kenyan Premier League
16.02.25	Gor Mahia - Tusker	0:0
19.01.25	Tusker - Gor Mahia	2:1
20.01.24	Gor Mahia - Tusker	1:0
22.10.23	Tusker - Gor Mahia	0:1
28.05.23	Tusker - Gor Mahia	0:0
08.02.23	Gor Mahia - Tusker	2:1
16.04.22	Gor Mahia - Tusker	0:2

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