Match Info

Premier League - Round 2

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: Villa Park (Birmingham)

Referee: Gillett J. (Aus)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Premier League
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Laola1, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	Play Sports 1
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network, FuboTV
Croatia	Arena Sport 1
Cyprus	Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sport 4K, Cytavision Sports 3, Cytavision Sports 3
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
France	CANAL+ Foot, CANAL+ Sport
Germany	Laola1, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	Nova Sports Prime
Hungary	Match 4
India	JioStar, JioTV app
Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Arena
Malaysia	Astro Go, Astro Sports
Malta	TSN Malta 2
Mexico	Disney+, FOX One, FOX Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	SKY Go NZ
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport Premier League 1
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN 1 Bar Espana, DAZN 1 Espana, DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
United-kingdom	Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports UHD
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	FuboTV, NBC Universo, NBC, SportsEngine Play, Telemundo
Venezuela	Disney+


	Aston Villa		Arsenal

	1	X	2
	6.50	4.33	1.48
	6.50	4.40	1.49
	6.50	4.25	1.52
	7.25	4.65	1.48
	6.25	4.61	1.53	Watch
	7.15	4.65	1.46
	7.04	4.46	1.50	Watch
	6.40	4.60	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.7 ↑ (4.53)	4.49 ↑ (3.65)	1.5 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aston Villa
14.4%

Draw
21.4%

Arsenal
64.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

26.3%

52.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.9%

25.9%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aston Villa's form might have worsened.

Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arsenal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aston Villa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arsenal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.2%	7.8%	85.9%

Aston Villa - Arsenal Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.79) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Arsenal will win (54 of 63 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.07% – 94.35%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Arsenal will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Suzuki Z. (G) 2. Cash M. 3. Lindelof V. 14. Torres P. 22. Maatsen I. 8. Kamara B. 6. Barkley R. 7. McGinn J. (C) 10. Buendia E. 53. Hemmings G. 11. Jackson N.	1. Raya D. (G) 4. White B. 3. Mosquera C. 6. Gabriel 33. Calafiori R. 41. Rice D. 49. Lewis-Skelly M. 7. Saka B. 8. Odegaard M. (C) 17. Tzolis C. 29. Havertz K.
Substitutes
18. Abraham T. 47. Alysson 40. Bizot M. (G) 26. Bogarde L. 17. Garnacho A. 74. Lynch L. 5. Mings T. 13. Ruggeri M. 29. Wan-Bissaka A.	13. Arrizabalaga K. (G) 39. Bruno Guimaraes 10. Eze E. 14. Gyökeres V. 5. Hincapie P. 15. Konsa E. 20. Madueke N. 23. Merino M. 36. Zubimendi M.
Coaches
Emery U.	Arteta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Tzolis C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Tzolis C. ↓, Eze E. ↑,
55', (Penalty overturned),
59', 0 - 1, Saka B. ⚽, Calafiori R. (A),
71', Odegaard M. ↓, Merino M. ↑,
71', Lewis-Skelly M. ↓, Bruno Guimaraes ↑,
71', Jackson N. ↓, Abraham T. ↑,
71', Hemmings G. ↓, Alysson ↑,
78', Cash M. ↓, Wan-Bissaka A. ↑,
78', Barkley R. ↓, Garnacho A. ↑,
79', Mosquera C. ↓, Konsa E. ↑,
80', Alysson 🟨,
81', McGinn J. 🟨,
85', Rice D. ↓, Zubimendi M. ↑,
90+6', Maatsen I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 2.

Aston Villa is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arsenal's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Aston Villa has had a series of away games.

Recently, Arsenal has had a series of home games.

In this match, Arsenal is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Aston Villa: Joao Gomes (Red Card) Manzambi J. (Knee Injury) Onana A. (Knee Injury) Watkins O. (Inactive)

There will not play in Arsenal: Martinelli G. (Transfer negotiations) Saliba W. (Back Injury) Timber J. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Abraham T. (Injury) Bailey L. (Muscle Injury) Madjo B. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Arsenal: Bruno Guimaraes (Thigh Injury) Gabriel Jesus (Transfer negotiations)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 13 matches, and goals 20:42. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.8:1.5).

Outrights of English Premier League for now

Arsenal: 58.36% Aston Villa: 0.7%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8:4	4	12
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4:9	-5	4

Last Results with these Odds

Arsenal - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 52.48%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aston Villa
English Premier League
23.08.26	Brighton & Hove Albion - Aston Villa	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
UEFA Super Cup
12.08.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
07.08.26	Bayern Munich - Aston Villa	2:1 ✺
04.08.26	Pathum United - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- Arsenal FC
English Premier League
21.08.26	Arsenal - Coventry City	3:0 ✺
English FA Community Shield
16.08.26	Arsenal - Manchester City	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
12.08.26	Arsenal - Como	1:1 ✺
Emirates Cup
09.08.26	Arsenal - Borussia Dortmund	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.26	Arsenal - Betis	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.12.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	4:1
06.12.25	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:1
18.01.25	Arsenal - Aston Villa	2:2
24.08.24	Aston Villa - Arsenal	0:2
14.04.24	Arsenal - Aston Villa	0:2
09.12.23	Aston Villa - Arsenal	1:0
18.02.23	Aston Villa - Arsenal	2:4

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