Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 14

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Navalcarnero		Alcalá

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.3	3.8
	1.92	3.05	3.75
	1.98	3.1	4.32
	1.89	3.19	4.1	Watch
	1.91	3	3.9
	1.92	3.02	4.04
	1.95	2.9	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.8)	3.08 ↓ (3.27)	4.02 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Navalcarnero
47.5%

Draw
29.7%

Alcalá
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

27.7%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

26.8%

21.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Navalcarnero has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Alcalá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Navalcarnero than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Navalcarnero - Alcalá Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcalá (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Sanchez N. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Villar J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
86', 2 - 1, Peque ⚽,
90+6', 3 - 1, Perez J. V. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12 and 8).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Navalcarnero may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Navalcarnero is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Navalcarnero won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Navalcarnero won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CDA Navalcarnero
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Navalcarnero - Getafe	2:3 ET ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
29.11.25	Rayo Majadahonda - Navalcarnero	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Navalcarnero - Tenerife B	4:1 ✺
16.11.25	Fuenlabrada - Navalcarnero	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Navalcarnero - Socuéllamos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWLW
- RSD Alcalá
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
30.11.25	Orihuela - Alcalá	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Alcalá - Rayo Majadahonda	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Elche Ilicitano - Alcalá	3:3 ✺
12.11.25	Rayo Vallecano B - Alcalá	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Alcalá - Intercity	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Promotion Play Offs
18.07.20	Navalcarnero - Alcalá	1:1
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
12.01.20	Navalcarnero - Alcalá	0:1
25.08.19	Alcalá - Navalcarnero	0:1

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