Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 25

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Naxxar Lions		Birkirkara

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	3.2	2.3	Watch
	2.83	3.17	2.4
	2.74	3.43	2.32	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.3
	2.77	3.38	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↓ (2.83)	3.26 ↑ (3.23)	2.34 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Naxxar Lions
32.9%

Draw
28%

Birkirkara
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

28.4%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

28.9%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Naxxar Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

The chances for Birkirkara have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naxxar Lions than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Naxxar Lions - Birkirkara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Debono M. (G) 10. Farias E. (C) 7. Fenech M. 5. Gustavo Felipe 3. JP Iseppe 18. Letherby D. 9. Pahama N. 19. Rosiel 4. Theo Kruger 24. Vinicius Baiano 11. Vitinho	1. Martinez M. (G) 33. Acheampong G. 77. Garzia A. 24. Lacunza L. 2. Lopez F. 11. Macula 59. Makoma D. 25. Micallef N. 3. Morello M. (C) 9. Reid K. 41. Roni Santos
Substitutes
80. Azzopardi J. (G) 17. Bugeja F. 13. Bugeja S. 20. Costa Goncalves G. 14. Gauci C. 30. Guehi S. 33. Joao Moura 21. Micallef M. 8. Pace Cocks N. 25. Portelli O. 99. Vella A. (G)	22. Busuttil J. 16. Cortis S. 30. Cross N. 10. Dimech S. 17. Fenech K. 23. Magri S. 14. Pullicino D. 19. Sammut K. 6. Viveros S. 50. Vrcic J. 15. Zani B.
Coaches
Muscat W.	Zammit P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Acheampong G. ↓, Viveros S. ↑,
68', Theo Kruger 🟨,
72', Farias E. 🟨,
74', Macula 🟨,
77', Vitinho ↓, Costa Goncalves G. ↑,
77', Morello M. ↓, Busuttil J. ↑,
82', Macula ↓, Vrcic J. ↑,
85', Fenech M. ↓, Pace Cocks N. ↑,
86', Viveros S. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Second stage ~ Top 6: ) and 8 in the zone Premier League (Second stage ~ Play Out: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 2.

Naxxar is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Birkirkara has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Naxxar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Birkirkara has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Naxxar won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 12:28. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Naxxar won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 1.2:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Birkirkara	6	3	1	2	9:4	5	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Naxxar Lions
Maltese Premier League
21.02.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Naxxar Lions	1:2 ✺
17.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Gżira United	4:2 ✺
14.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Sliema Wanderers	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Hamrun Spartans - Naxxar Lions	4:0 ✺
04.02.26	Naxxar Lions - Mosta	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWTLW
- Birkirkara FC
Maltese FA Trophy
25.02.26	Birkirkara - Pietà Hotspurs	2:0 ✺
Maltese Premier League
21.02.26	Birkirkara - Żabbar St. Patrick	0:3 ✺
17.02.26	Birkirkara - Sliema Wanderers	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Mosta - Birkirkara	0:0 ✺
08.02.26	Birkirkara - Valletta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
24.09.25	Birkirkara - Naxxar Lions	1:0
15.02.25	Naxxar Lions - Birkirkara	2:1
02.11.24	Birkirkara - Naxxar Lions	1:0
Club Friendly
26.07.24	Birkirkara - Naxxar Lions	1:0
Maltese Premier League
14.03.24	Birkirkara - Naxxar Lions	0:2
26.11.23	Naxxar Lions - Birkirkara	2:0
Club Friendly
11.08.23	Birkirkara - Naxxar Lions	3:0

Naxxar Lions - Birkirkara: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide