Match Info

Catarinense 2 - Round 16

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday


	Nação		Caravaggio

	1	X	2
	5.00	3.80	1.51
	4.10	3.40	1.68
	5.22	3.99	1.49
	5.46	3.82	1.54	Watch
	5.40	3.95	1.47
	4.64	3.61	1.70
	4.1	3.35	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.85 ↑ (4.2)	3.7 ↑ (3.45)	1.57 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nação
18.6%

Draw
24.3%

Caravaggio
57.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21%

25.6%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.4%

24.9%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nação has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Caravaggio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nação than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caravaggio than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Nação - Caravaggio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
65', 1 - 1, ⚽,
68', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nação won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Caravaggio is seen as the favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Nação won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Nação won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Caravaggio	18	10	5	3	47:20	27	35
7	Nacao	18	5	6	7	19:26	-7	21

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nação Esportes Canoinhas
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
15.07.26	Jaraguá do Sul - Nação	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Nação - Fluminense-SC	1:2 ✺
05.07.26	Atlético Tubarão - Nação	1:0 ✺
01.07.26	Nação - Metropolitano	0:0 ✺
21.06.26	Guarani de Palhoça - Nação	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLTT
- Caravaggio FC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
15.07.26	Caravaggio - Atlético Tubarão	2:1 ✺
12.07.26	Caravaggio - Jaraguá do Sul	9:0 ✺
05.07.26	Metropolitano - Caravaggio	2:1 ✺
28.06.26	Caravaggio - Guarani de Palhoça	2:3 ✺
24.06.26	Blumenau - Caravaggio	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense 2
27.05.26	Caravaggio - Nação	4:1
05.08.23	Nação - Caravaggio	1:0
30.07.23	Caravaggio - Nação	1:0
16.07.23	Caravaggio - Nação	3:3
13.08.22	Nação - Caravaggio	4:1
07.08.22	Caravaggio - Nação	0:1
09.07.22	Nação - Caravaggio	1:2

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