Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 5

Date: 6 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Victoria (Aguascalientes)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Claro Sports, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN
Venezuela	Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Necaxa		Atlético San Luis

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.75	Watch
	2.3	3.4	2.9
	2.48	3.25	2.78	Watch
	2.58	3.34	2.88
	2.48	3.33	2.86
	2.38	3	2.63	Watch
	2.53	3.43	2.83	Watch
	2.45	3.25	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.79)	3.3 ↓ (3.74)	2.83 ↓ (3.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Necaxa
38.3%

Draw
28.5%

Atlético San Luis
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

24.7%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50%

24%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Necaxa's form might have worsened.

Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético San Luis's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Necaxa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético San Luis, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	38.5%	15.4%

Necaxa - Atlético San Luis Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Necaxa will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Atlético San Luis will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Necaxa: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Atlético San Luis (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Necaxa (1.37) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 3 - 50%). Atlético San Luis (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Unsain E. (G) 33. Martinez R. 4. Pena A. (C) 3. Oliveros A. 24. Rossano F. 6. Leyva D. 7. Rosero K. 188. Tello I. 8. Faravelli L. 10. Almendra A. E. 21. Carranza J.	1. Sanchez A. (G) 3. Robson Bambu 30. Galindo B. 31. Aguila E. 15. Lucas Esteves 10. Salles-Lamonge S. 5. Meraz R. 7. Galdames B. 26. Perez S. 14. Garcia M. 9. Joao Pedro Galvao (C)
Substitutes
232. Alonso R. 9. Badaloni T. 16. Calderon C. 17. Cortez R. 12. Jimenez L. (G) 136. Marquez Gomez D. 2. Martinez E. 20. Mendez F. 30. Monreal R. 210. Palacios J.	25. Barajas F. 4. Dominguez J. 17. Duarte A. 20. Flores L. 6. Juanpe 34. Lajud G. (G) 16. Marchand J. 19. Munoz S. 11. Rodriguez D. 2. Torres R.
Coaches
Varini M.	Abascal G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Carranza J. ⚽, Rossano F. (A),
29', Robson Bambu 🟨,
30', Carranza J. 🟨,
45+2', Robson Bambu 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Perez S. ↓, Torres R. ↑,
46', Galdames B. ↓, Duarte A. ↑,
57', Carranza J. ↓, Badaloni T. ↑,
59', 2 - 0, Badaloni T. ⚽, Rossano F. (A),
61', Almendra A. E. ↓, Monreal R. ↑,
66', 3 - 0, Pena A. ⚽, Leyva D. (A),
73', 4 - 0, Monreal R. ⚽, Rossano F. (A),
80', Garcia M. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
80', Meraz R. ↓, Barajas F. ↑,
80', Duarte A. ↓, Munoz S. ↑,
82', Tello I. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
82', Rossano F. ↓, Alonso R. ↑,
83', Pena A. ↓, Calderon C. ↑,
90+1', 4 - 1, Joao Pedro Galvao (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Faravelli L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 4.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Necaxa: Gutierrez K. (Red Card)

There will not play in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Macias O. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 38:24. (average 1.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.9:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Atl. San Luis	10	3	3	4	14:18	-4	12
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12:20	-8	8

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético San Luis - the odds 3.88 are the expected chance of winning is 23.77%, but this team recently wins 36% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
31.01.26	Club América - Necaxa	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Necaxa - Atlas	0:1 ✺
13.01.26	Necaxa - Monterrey	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Santos Laguna - Necaxa	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.25	Atlas - Necaxa	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LLLWL
- Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX
31.01.26	Atlético San Luis - Chivas Guadalajara	2:3 ✺
17.01.26	Tijuana - Atlético San Luis	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Club América - Atlético San Luis	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Atlético San Luis - Tigres UANL	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
23.12.25	Necaxa - Atlético San Luis	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.7 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
23.12.25	Necaxa - Atlético San Luis	2:0
Mexican Liga MX
26.10.25	Atlético San Luis - Necaxa	3:4
24.01.25	Atlético San Luis - Necaxa	0:3
06.11.24	Necaxa - Atlético San Luis	1:1
08.03.24	Necaxa - Atlético San Luis	3:1
22.10.23	Atlético San Luis - Necaxa	4:0
06.01.23	Necaxa - Atlético San Luis	2:3

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