Match Info

Premier League - Round 31

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday


	Negele Arsi Ketema		Dire Dawa City

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.78	3.8
	2.11	2.77	3.83
	2.05	2.63	3.8
	1.97	2.88	4.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↑ (1.87)	2.77 ↓ (3)	3.87 ↓ (4.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Negele Arsi Ketema
44.1%

Draw
32.6%

Dire Dawa City
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

30.5%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

30.4%

20.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Negele Arsi Ketema has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Dire Dawa City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Negele Arsi Ketema than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dire Dawa City than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Negele Arsi Ketema - Dire Dawa City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Tefera D. (Penalty Awarded),
45+3', 2 - 0, Melese D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', 3 - 0, Bizuneh K. ⚽,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 and 17).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Negele Arsi Ketema is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Negele Arsi Ketema won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Negele Arsi Ketema	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Negele Arsi Ketema
Ethiopian Premier League
06.05.26	Welwalo Adigrat - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:2 ✺
30.04.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Fasil Kenema	0:0 ✺
Ethiopian Cup
25.04.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Sidama Coffee	1:2 ✺
Ethiopian Premier League
19.04.26	Negele Arsi Ketema - Hadiya Hossana	1:1 ✺
13.04.26	Sheger Ketema - Negele Arsi Ketema	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WTLTT
- Dire Dawa City
Ethiopian Premier League
05.05.26	Dire Dawa City - Ethiopia Bunna	0:0 ✺
29.04.26	Adama City - Dire Dawa City	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sidama Coffee - Dire Dawa City	2:0 ✺
15.04.26	Dire Dawa City - Mechal	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Shire Endaselassie - Dire Dawa City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Ethiopian Premier League
30.12.25	Dire Dawa City - Negele Arsi Ketema	0:3

Negele Arsi Ketema - Dire Dawa City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide