Match Info

I Lyga - Round 24

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Neptūnas		Jonava

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.92	3.25	3.45
	1.93	3.25	3.37
	1.97	3.35	3.48	Watch
	1.88	3.15	3.3
	1.91	3.32	3.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.76)	3.26 ↓ (3.63)	3.44 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neptūnas
46.6%

Draw
27.4%

Jonava
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

25%

23.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

24.2%

22.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neptūnas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Jonava has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neptūnas than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Neptūnas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jonava than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Neptūnas - Jonava Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Neptūnas will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 4 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 4.

Neptūnas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Jonava is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Neptūnas is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Neptūnas won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.6:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Neptūnas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Neptunas	25	14	2	9	33:30	3	44
11	Jonava	25	7	6	12	28:33	-5	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Neptūnas Klaipėda
Lithuanian Division 2
07.09.26	Žalgiris Vilnius 2 - Neptūnas	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Neptūnas - Atmosfera Mažeikiai	3:1 ✺
22.08.26	BFA Vilnius - Neptūnas	2:0 ✺
15.08.26	Neptūnas - Babrungas Plungė	0:4 ✺
08.08.26	Tauras Tauragė - Neptūnas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLLW
- FK Jonava
Lithuanian Division 2
04.09.26	Jonava - Dainava Alytus	0:0 ✺
29.08.26	Transinvest 2 - Jonava	1:2 ✺
21.08.26	Jonava - FA Šiauliai B	0:1 ✺
14.08.26	Kauno Žalgiris 2 - Jonava	2:1 ✺
07.08.26	Jonava - Ekranas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian Division 2
08.05.26	Jonava - Neptūnas	0:1
30.08.25	Jonava - Neptūnas	0:2
03.05.25	Neptūnas - Jonava	0:2
08.11.23	Jonava - Neptūnas	2:5
30.06.23	Neptūnas - Jonava	2:0
04.08.21	Neptūnas - Jonava	0:2
03.04.21	Jonava - Neptūnas	5:1

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