Match Info

Date: 15 July 2022, Friday

Location: MSU Soccer Park (New York)

Referee: Rivas M. (Usa)


	New York Red Bulls 2		Indy Eleven

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.4	1.93	Watch
	3.05	3.5	2.02
	3.5	3.4	1.85
	3.51	3.57	2.03
	3.54	3.7	1.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↓ (3.66)	3.51 ↓ (3.6)	1.95 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

New York Red Bulls 2
27%

Draw
26%

Indy Eleven
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.8%

25.2%

49.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.3%

26.8%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

New York Red Bulls 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Indy Eleven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for New York Red Bulls 2 than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Indy Eleven could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	40%	30%

New York Red Bulls 2 - Indy Eleven Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. New York Red Bulls 2 will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Indy will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 and 9).

New York Red Bulls 2 has the most likely position - 14 (69.27%), has project points - 19, has currently - 6, has a very small chance of playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of qtrs (<1%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Indy has the most likely position - 8 (27.71%), has project points - 41, has currently - 21, has a chance of playoffs (22%), has a small chance of qtrs (6%), has a very small chance of semis (2%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has very small quality 7, very small importance 8, very small match rating 7. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches New York Red Bulls 2 won 1.

In the last matches we may see a scene of defeats of two teams.

Indy could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Indy will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 6 head-to-head matches New York Red Bulls 2 won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-9.

Including matches at home between the teams New York Red Bulls 2 won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- New York Red Bulls 2
USL Championship
09.07.22	Louisville City - New York Red Bulls 2	6:0 ✺
01.07.22	New York Red Bulls 2 - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	0:3 ✺
25.06.22	El Paso Locomotive - New York Red Bulls 2	5:0 ✺
15.06.22	New York Red Bulls 2 - Tulsa	0:0 ✺
08.06.22	Loudoun United - New York Red Bulls 2	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL
- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
09.07.22	Indy Eleven - Detroit City	0:1 ✺
06.07.22	Pittsburgh Riverhounds - Indy Eleven	1:0 ✺
02.07.22	Indy Eleven - Miami	0:1 ✺
25.06.22	San Diego Loyal - Indy Eleven	5:0 ✺
18.06.22	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Indy Eleven	4:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
21.05.22	Indy Eleven - New York Red Bulls 2	2:0
26.10.19	Indy Eleven - New York Red Bulls 2	1:0
04.09.19	Indy Eleven - New York Red Bulls 2	1:0
28.04.19	New York Red Bulls 2 - Indy Eleven	2:1
05.09.18	Indy Eleven - New York Red Bulls 2	3:0
27.05.18	New York Red Bulls 2 - Indy Eleven	4:1

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