Match Info

Date: 25 June 2022, Saturday

Location: Torero Stadium (San Diego)

Referee: Corrigan M. (Usa)


	San Diego Loyal		Indy Eleven

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.7	4.1
	1.79	3.5	3.75
	1.61	3.75	4.3
	1.71	3.91	4.48
	1.69	3.9	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (2.02)	3.75 ↑ (3.6)	4.17 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Diego Loyal
53.8%

Draw
24.3%

Indy Eleven
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

25.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.6%

26.7%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Diego Loyal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Diego Loyal's performance.

Indy Eleven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Indy Eleven might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Diego Loyal than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Diego Loyal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Indy Eleven than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Indy Eleven could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	12.5%	25%

San Diego Loyal - Indy Eleven Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. San Diego Loyal will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Indy will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Diego Loyal: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

San Diego Loyal has the most likely position - 5 (16.02%), has project points - 53, has currently - 25, has a good chance of playoffs (77%), has a chance of qtrs (38%), has a chance of semis (16%), has a small chance of final (7%), has a very small chance of win league (3%).

Indy has the most likely position - 8 (17.37%), has project points - 47, has currently - 21, has a good chance of playoffs (57%), has a chance of qtrs (22%), has a small chance of semis (8%), has a very small chance of final (3%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 16, small importance 20, small match rating 18. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

San Diego Loyal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match San Diego Loyal is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Diego Loyal
USL Championship
19.06.22	San Diego Loyal - Las Vegas Lights	1:2 ✺
11.06.22	San Diego Loyal - Hartford Athletic	3:0 ✺
02.06.22	New York Red Bulls 2 - San Diego Loyal	2:2 ✺
28.05.22	LA Galaxy II - San Diego Loyal	2:2 ✺
21.05.22	Rio Grande Valley - San Diego Loyal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWTTL
- Indy Eleven
USL Championship
18.06.22	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Indy Eleven	4:3 ✺
08.06.22	Miami - Indy Eleven	1:1 ✺
04.06.22	Charleston Battery - Indy Eleven	3:4 ✺
28.05.22	Indy Eleven - New Mexico United	1:2 ✺
21.05.22	Indy Eleven - New York Red Bulls 2	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LTWLW

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