Match Info

A-League - Round 11

Date: 2 January 2026, Friday

Location: AAMI Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV, True ID, True Premier Football 5
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV


	Melbourne Victory		Perth Glory

	1	X	2
	1.86	4	3.7	Watch
	1.92	3.55	3.7	Watch
	1.72	4.18	4.3	Watch
	1.85	3.7	3.7
	1.9	4.08	3.86	Watch
	1.81	3.8	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.71)	3.89 ↑ (3.75)	3.88 ↓ (4.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Melbourne Victory
51.3%

Draw
24.3%

Perth Glory
24.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

24.5%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

25.3%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Melbourne Victory has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Perth Glory has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne Victory than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perth Glory than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.5%	5.9%	20.6%

Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Melbourne Victory will win (votes: 25 - 73.5%). Perth will win (votes: 7 - 20.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Melbourne Victory: 58.7% – 88.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Perth (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Melbourne Victory will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Melbourne Victory (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Perth (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Duncan J. (G) 16. Inserra J. 15. Esposito S. 21. Roderick 2. Davidson J. 27. D'Arrigo L. 64. Mata J. 10. Genreau D. 17. Velupillay N. 9. Vergos N. 11. Clarismario	29. Sutton M. (G) 2. Shamoon C. A. 4. Wootton S. 45. Kaltack B. 3. Sutton S. 20. Ostler T. 27. Freney W. 18. Bozinovski R. 7. Pennington N. 17. Sulemani A. 34. Lawrence T.
Substitutes
29. Dragicevic O. 14. Grimaldi M. 23. Jelacic K. 28. Razmovski K. 19. Reec J. 3. Traore A. 40. Warshawsky J. (G)	10. Amos L. 39. De Abreu G. 5. Foxe R. 24. Lebib A. 26. Ngo K. 22. Taggart A. 40. Warner R. (G)
Coaches
Diles A.	Griffiths A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Ostler T. ⚽, Bozinovski R. (A),
17', Roderick ↓, Traore A. ↑,
42', Ostler T. 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 1, D'Arrigo L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Shamoon C. A. 🟨,
53', 2 - 1, Velupillay N. ⚽, Mata J. (A),
54', Sulemani A. ↓, Taggart A. ↑,
54', Ostler T. ↓, Ngo K. ↑,
69', 3 - 1, Clarismario ⚽, Mata J. (A),
72', Pennington N. 🟨,
77', Mata J. ↓, Grimaldi M. ↑,
77', Velupillay N. ↓, Jelacic K. ↑,
77', Pennington N. ↓, Amos L. ↑,
78', Bozinovski R. ↓, De Abreu G. ↑,
79', 3 - 2, Ngo K. ⚽, Amos L. (A),
85', Clarismario ↓, Reec J. ↑,
86', Genreau D. ↓, Dragicevic O. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 5.

Melbourne Victory is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Perth's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Melbourne Victory is the team to beat.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melbourne Victory won 14 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 37:17. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Melbourne Victory won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.4:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Melbourne Victory
Australian A-League
29.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Melbourne City - Melbourne Victory	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Adelaide United	2:1 ✺
05.12.25	Macarthur FC - Melbourne Victory	0:0 ✺
28.11.25	Brisbane Roar - Melbourne Victory	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWTL
- Perth Glory
Australian A-League
28.12.25	Melbourne City - Perth Glory	1:3 ✺
20.12.25	Perth Glory - Adelaide United	0:1 ✺
13.12.25	Perth Glory - Sydney	0:1 ✺
05.12.25	Perth Glory - Western Sydney Wanderers	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Macarthur FC - Perth Glory	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.4 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
31.10.25	Perth Glory - Melbourne Victory	0:2
Club Friendly
24.09.25	Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory	3:0
Australian A-League
01.02.25	Perth Glory - Melbourne Victory	0:2
08.12.24	Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory	2:0
31.03.24	Melbourne Victory - Perth Glory	2:1
06.01.24	Perth Glory - Melbourne Victory	2:3
Club Friendly
04.10.23	Perth Glory - Melbourne Victory	0:4

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