Match Info

A-League - Round 14

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: McDonald Jones Stadium (Newcastle)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	SPOTV Asia
Australia	Paramount+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, myTV SUPER
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	SPOTV, Vidio
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go
Mongolia	SPOTV
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Philippines	SPOTV
South-korea	SPOTV
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	SPOTV
United-kingdom	Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports 7
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Vietnam	SPOTV


	Newcastle Jets		Wellington Phoenix

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.75	4.1	Watch
	1.63	4.5	4.2
	1.68	4.45	4.15	Watch
	1.66	4.68	4.3	Watch
	1.67	4.2	4
	1.7	4.61	4.35	Watch
	1.64	4.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.64)	4.53 ↑ (4.15)	4.19 ↓ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle Jets
56.8%

Draw
20.8%

Wellington Phoenix
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.2%

22.2%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

21.2%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle Jets has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Wellington Phoenix has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newcastle Jets than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington Phoenix than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	13.6%	36.4%

Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 11 - 50%). Wellington will win (votes: 8 - 36.4%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Newcastle: 29.1% – 70.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Wellington (votes: 2 - 25%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Newcastle (2.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH +0.75 - Wellington (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - Wellington (2.12) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 6 - 50%). Wellington (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Delianov J. (G) 22. Bertolissio J. 5. Shaughnessy J. 33. Natta M. 23. Wilmering D. 8. Bayliss L. 28. Dobson W. 14. Burgess M. (C) 13. Taylor C. 9. Rose L. 7. Adams E.	40. McCarron E. (G) 6. Payne T. 15. Hughes I. 4. James M. 27. Sheridan M. 20. Najjarine R. 14. Rufer A. (C) 25. Nagasawa K. 11. Armiento C. 7. Eze I. 3. Piper C.
Substitutes
43. Bertoncello X. 42. Cooper M. 11. Gibson B. 18. Mizunuma K. 20. Nassiep A. (G) 24. Nunes A. 41. Scicluna L.	29. Brooke-Smith L. 16. Kartum S. 30. Kelly-Heald A. (G) 18. Kelly-Heald L. 10. Mileusnic N. 8. Retre P. 28. Tuiloma B.
Coaches
Milligan M.	Italiano G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Bayliss L. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
56', 2 - 0, Taylor C. ⚽, Wilmering D. (A),
70', 3 - 0, Adams E. ⚽, Bayliss L. (A),
71', Adams E. ↓, Bertoncello X. ↑,
71', Eze I. ↓, Brooke-Smith L. ↑,
71', Armiento C. ↓, Mileusnic N. ↑,
71', Taylor C. ↓, Mizunuma K. ↑,
71', Najjarine R. ↓, Retre P. ↑,
72', Hughes I. ↓, Tuiloma B. ↑,
80', Bayliss L. ↓, Scicluna L. ↑,
80', Rose L. ↓, Gibson B. ↑,
82', Nagasawa K. ↓, Kartum S. ↑,
86', 3 - 1, Kartum S. ⚽, Payne T. (A),
89', 4 - 1, Bertoncello X. ⚽, Bertolissio J. (A),
90+1', Dobson W. ↓, Nunes A. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ A~League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 1.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Newcastle is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Newcastle: Aquilina T. (Inactive) Badolato A. (Injury) Bracco C. (Inactive) Clough Z. (Inactive) Fryer O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Wellington: Edwards D. (Inactive) Ishige H. (Injury) Kartum S. (Inactive) Oluwayemi J. (Injury) Smith J. (Inactive) Supyk L. (Injury) Walker N. (Inactive)

We predict that Newcastle will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newcastle won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 36:29. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Newcastle won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:12. (average 2:1.2).

Outrights of Australian A-League for now

Newcastle Jets: 12.08% Wellington Phoenix: 4.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle Jets
Australian A-League
17.01.26	Western Sydney Wanderers - Newcastle Jets	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Melbourne City - Newcastle Jets	0:1 ✺
31.12.25	Auckland FC - Newcastle Jets	1:3 ✺
26.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Macarthur FC	4:5 ✺
20.12.25	Newcastle Jets - Sydney	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 WWWLW
- Wellington Phoenix
Australian A-League
18.01.26	Sydney - Wellington Phoenix	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Wellington Phoenix - Adelaide United	2:2 ✺
03.01.26	Brisbane Roar - Wellington Phoenix	0:3 ✺
29.12.25	Melbourne Victory - Wellington Phoenix	5:1 ✺
20.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Central Coast Mariners	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.9 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Australian A-League
13.12.25	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	1:3
06.04.25	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:2
27.12.24	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	2:1
19.04.24	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:1
27.01.24	Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix	1:2
09.12.23	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	0:3
03.03.23	Wellington Phoenix - Newcastle Jets	2:1

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