Match Info

Liga Profesional - Clausura - Round 9

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Marcelo Bielsa (Rosario)

Referee: Ramirez N. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	AFA Play, Disney+, ESPN, ESPN Premium
Bolivia	ESPN
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Ecuador	ESPN
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Newells Old Boys		Vélez Sársfield

	1	X	2
	2.65	3	2.85	Watch
	2.80	2.87	2.70
	2.72	2.92	2.85	Watch
	2.81	2.93	3.02
	2.73	2.94	2.89
	2.75	2.85	2.95
	2.72	3.02	2.92	Watch
	2.65	2.95	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↓ (2.81)	2.94 ↓ (2.98)	2.88 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newells Old Boys
34.8%

Draw
32.3%

Vélez Sársfield
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

31%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

30.9%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newells Old Boys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Vélez Sársfield has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newells Old Boys than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	75%	12.5%

Newells Old Boys - Vélez Sársfield Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Newells Old Boys will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Vélez will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 75%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Tie (3.00) (votes: 89%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Reinatti J. (G) 6. Ortega M. 17. Giannetti L. 16. Carrizo L. 28. Russo J. 26. Herrera R. 5. Regiardo L. (C) 7. Mazzantti W. 20. Guch F. 32. Solari S. 9. Coccaro M.	1. Marchiori T. (G) 4. Garcia J. 32. Silvero T. 2. Mammana E. 3. Gomez E. (C) 29. Aliendro R. 8. Robertone L. 37. Policella J. 22. Lanzini M. 18. Escobar S. 77. Martinez R.
Substitutes
21. Arias G. (G) 25. Cabrera B. 19. Gomez J. 27. Gomez L. 3. Luciano M. 33. Nunez W. 99. Ramirez I. 39. Rios T. 22. Salomon O. 36. Scarpeccio F. 15. Sonora A. 8. Sotelo D.	35. Arias M. 5. Baeza C. 19. Cristaldo L. 48. Feler L. 15. Godoy D. 16. Magallan L. 47. Pereyra A. 46. Piedrabuena U. 30. Piola L. 23. Sanguinetti F. (G) 17. Veron A. 33. Villalba T.
Coaches
Kudelka F.	Barros Schelotto G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', 0 - 1, Martinez R. ⚽, Gomez E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Mammana E. ↓, Magallan L. ↑,
60', Policella J. ↓, Veron A. ↑,
60', Herrera R. ↓, Gomez J. ↑,
63', Solari S. (Penalty Awarded),
67', Solari S. ↓, Nunez W. ↑,
80', Aliendro R. ↓, Feler L. ↑,
81', Martinez R. ↓, Godoy D. ↑,
85', Regiardo L. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
85', Guch F. ↓, Sonora A. ↑,
88', Lanzini M. ↓, Baeza C. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 1, Sonora A. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newells Old Boys won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Vélez may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Newells Old Boys: Acuna V. (Inactive) Goitea N. (Hernia) Luciano M. (Injury) Montero A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vélez: Gordon J. (Knee Injury) Pellegrini M. (Yellow Cards) Valdes D. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newells Old Boys won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:20. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Newells Old Boys won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 1.3:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Newells Old Boys - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 33%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Vélez Sársfield - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.95%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newells Old Boys
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.09.26	Rosario Central - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
31.08.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Newells Old Boys	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Newells Old Boys - Banfield	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Newells Old Boys - Deportivo Riestra	2:0 ✺
09.08.26	Defensa y Justicia - Newells Old Boys	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 TTWWL
- Vélez Sársfield
Argentinian Liga Profesional
05.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
02.09.26	Vélez Sársfield - Boca Juniors	0:1 penalties ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.08.26	Deportivo Riestra - Vélez Sársfield	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	River Plate - Vélez Sársfield	2:2 ✺
17.08.26	Vélez Sársfield - Defensa y Justicia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
04.05.26	Vélez Sársfield - Newells Old Boys	1:1
21.05.24	Vélez Sársfield - Newells Old Boys	1:0
03.02.23	Newells Old Boys - Vélez Sársfield	1:0
03.09.22	Vélez Sársfield - Newells Old Boys	0:1
08.10.21	Newells Old Boys - Vélez Sársfield	1:2
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
13.02.21	Vélez Sársfield - Newells Old Boys	1:0
03.01.21	Newells Old Boys - Vélez Sársfield	0:1

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