Match Info

Cymru South - Round 6

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday


	Newport City		Cambrian United

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.4	3.25
	2.02	3.43	3.33
	3.52	3.85	1.88	Watch
	1.96	3.52	3.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.65)	3.55 ↓ (3.62)	2.94 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport City
40.5%

Draw
26.9%

Cambrian United
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

25%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.9%

24.8%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newport City's performance.

Cambrian United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cambrian United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newport City than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newport City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cambrian United than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cambrian United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Newport City - Cambrian United Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Newport City (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Eason L. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
64', 1 - 1, Hillman D. ⚽,
66', Evans A. 🟥,
87', 2 - 1, McLaggon K. ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

Newport City has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cambrian United is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Newport City has had a series of away games.

Recently, Cambrian United has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Newport City won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Newport City won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport City FC
Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Cwmbran Celtic - Newport City	1:1 ✺
22.08.25	Newport City - Ynyshir Albions	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Baglan Dragons - Newport City	3:3 ✺
09.08.25	Trefelin - Newport City	0:2 ✺
Welsh League Cup
02.08.25	Haverfordwest County - Newport City	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTTWL
- Cambrian United
Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Cambrian United - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Cambrian United - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
15.08.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Cambrian United	0:5 ✺
08.08.25	Cambrian United - Cwmbran Celtic	4:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
01.08.25	Cambrian United - Cardiff City U21	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
08.02.25	Cambrian United - Newport City	1:1
06.08.24	Newport City - Cambrian United	0:0

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