Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 25

Date: 4 February 2025, Tuesday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)


	Newport County		Morecambe

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.25	2.63	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.65
	2.6	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.67	3.35	2.72
	2.6	3.3	2.65	Watch
	2.62	3.3	2.7
	2.58	3.29	2.66	Watch
	2.6	3.3	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↑ (2.37)	3.3 ↓ (3.35)	2.68 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
36.3%

Draw
28.5%

Morecambe
35.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

27.9%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

26.3%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Morecambe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Morecambe than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.5%	38.7%	25.8%

Newport County - Morecambe Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 11 - 35.5%). Morecambe will win (votes: 8 - 25.8%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 38.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.6% – 55.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Townsend N. (G) 26. Evans C. 5. Clarke J. (C) 4. Baker M. 12. Thomas J. 19. McLoughlin S. 11. Antwi C. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 44. Ajiboye D. 7. Kamwa B. 9. Baker-Richardson C.	1. Burgoyne H. (G) 2. Hendrie L. 5. Taylor M. 6. Stott J. 23. Tutonda D. 8. Macadam H. 24. Songo'o Y. (C) 16. Dallas A. 20. Cooke C. 9. Hope H. 19. Dackers M.
Substitutes
25. Hudlin K. 23. Jameson K. 8. Martin J. 30. Mawene N. 21. Spellman M. 32. Warner J. 36. Webb L. (G)	7. Edwards G. 3. Lewis A. 17. Lewis P. 12. Schofield R. (G) 18. Tollitt B. 4. White T. 14. Williams R.
Coaches
Jardim N.	Adams D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Thomas J. ⚽,
44', Tutonda D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Antwi C. 🟨,
53', Hope H. ↓, Edwards G. ↑,
63', Tutonda D. ↓, Lewis A. ↑,
72', Baker-Richardson C. ↓, Martin J. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Edwards G. ⚽, Songo'o Y. (A),
82', 2 - 1, Ajiboye D. ⚽, Driscoll-Glennon A. (A),
85', Kamwa B. ↓, Hudlin K. ↑,
88', Thomas J. ↓, Jameson K. ↑,
90+1', Stott J. ↓, Tollitt B. ↑,
90+1', Songo'o Y. ↓, Lewis P. ↑,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 18 and 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newport won 3.

Newport is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Morecambe is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Newport could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Newport won 8 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 27:27 (average 1.4:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:10 (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English League Two
01.02.25	Newport County - Barrow	1:0 ✺
28.01.25	Salford City - Newport County	1:1 ✺
24.01.25	Newport County - Swindon Town	1:2 ✺
18.01.25	Port Vale - Newport County	3:2 ✺
02.01.25	Newport County - AFC Wimbledon	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTLLL
- Morecambe
English League Two
01.02.25	Morecambe - Fleetwood Town	4:2 ✺
28.01.25	Bradford City - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
25.01.25	Colchester United - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
18.01.25	Morecambe - Crewe Alexandra	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Chelsea - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
31.08.24	Morecambe - Newport County	0:1
12.03.24	Newport County - Morecambe	5:3
28.11.23	Morecambe - Newport County	1:2
English FA Cup
06.11.21	Morecambe - Newport County	1:0
English League Two
31.05.21	Morecambe - Newport County	1:0 ET
13.03.21	Morecambe - Newport County	1:3
05.12.20	Newport County - Morecambe	2:1

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