Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 27

Date: 18 January 2025, Saturday

Location: The Mazuma Stadium (Morecambe)

Referee: Howard P. (Eng)


	Morecambe		Crewe Alexandra

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2.1
	3.4	3.3	2.15	Watch
	3.47	3.32	2.1	Watch
	3.5	3.3	2.1
	3.44	3.4	2.08	Watch
	3.4	3.3	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (3.35)	3.32 ↑ (3.28)	2.1 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Morecambe
27.2%

Draw
28.3%

Crewe Alexandra
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.9%

28.4%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

27.7%

44.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Morecambe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Crewe Alexandra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

The ML Model estimate for Morecambe aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crewe Alexandra than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Morecambe - Crewe Alexandra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burgoyne H. (G) 2. Hendrie L. 14. Williams R. 6. Stott J. 23. Tutonda D. 18. Tollitt B. 24. Songo'o Y. (C) 28. Jones C. 4. White T. 7. Edwards G. 19. Dackers M.	12. Marschall F. (G) 2. Cooney R. 3. Knight-Lebel J. 5. Demetriou M. (C) 4. Williams Z. 25. Conway M. 17. Holicek M. 6. Sanders M. H. 11. Tabiner J. 14. Lankester J. 10. Tracey S.
Substitutes
20. Cooke C. 9. Hope H. 3. Lewis A. 8. Macadam H. 12. Schofield R. (G) 11. Slew J. 5. Taylor M.	28. Billington L. 9. Bogle O. 1. Booth T. (G) 24. Finney C. 7. Long Ch. 19. Lunt O. 23. Powell J.
Coaches
Adams D.	Bell L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Sanders M. H. 🟨,
45+1', Williams R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Sanders M. H. ↓, Bogle O. ↑,
59', Lankester J. ↓, Long Ch. ↑,
68', 0 - 1, Long Ch. ⚽, Cooney R. (A),
74', Knight-Lebel J. 🟨,
74', Tutonda D. ↓, Lewis A. ↑,
75', Dackers M. ↓, Hope H. ↑,
75', Edwards G. ↓, Slew J. ↑,
75', Jones C. ↓, Cooke C. ↑,
77', Williams Z. 🟨,
88', Tollitt B. ↓, Macadam H. ↑,
90+6', Tracey S. ↓, Finney C. ↑,
90+6', Holicek M. ↓, Powell J. ↑,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ National League and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ League One).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Crewe could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Crewe will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Morecambe won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 11:25 (average 0.8:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Morecambe won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:7 (average 0.7:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Morecambe
English FA Cup
11.01.25	Chelsea - Morecambe	5:0 ✺
English League Two
01.01.25	Morecambe - Tranmere Rovers	2:0 ✺
29.12.24	Salford City - Morecambe	1:0 ✺
26.12.24	Carlisle United - Morecambe	0:1 ✺
21.12.24	Morecambe - Bromley	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWLWL
- Crewe Alexandra
English League Two
11.01.25	Swindon Town - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
05.01.25	Crewe Alexandra - Bromley	4:1 ✺
01.01.25	Crewe Alexandra - Carlisle United	3:2 ✺
29.12.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Crewe Alexandra	1:1 ✺
26.12.24	Cheltenham Town - Crewe Alexandra	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
07.09.24	Crewe Alexandra - Morecambe	1:0
09.04.24	Morecambe - Crewe Alexandra	0:1
02.03.24	Crewe Alexandra - Morecambe	2:3
English League One
29.12.21	Morecambe - Crewe Alexandra	1:2
21.09.21	Crewe Alexandra - Morecambe	1:3
English League Two
29.02.20	Morecambe - Crewe Alexandra	1:1
23.11.19	Crewe Alexandra - Morecambe	5:0

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