Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 5

Date: 7 September 2024, Saturday

Location: Rodney Parade (Newport)

Referee: Parkinson S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Newport County		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	3	3.6	2.2
	2.9	3.5	2.25
	3	3.5	2.25
	3.05	3.6	2.27
	2.96	3.55	2.24	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.25
	2.97	3.48	2.27	Watch
	3	3.5	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.8)	3.53 ↑ (3.48)	2.25 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newport County
31.4%

Draw
26.7%

Port Vale
41.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.6%

27%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

27.1%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newport County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newport County than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	0%	73.3%

Newport County - Port Vale Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Newport will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Port Vale will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Port Vale: 50.9% – 95.7%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Townsend N. (G) 19. McLoughlin S. 26. Evans C. 23. Jameson K. 6. Brennan C. 3. Driscoll-Glennon A. 11. Antwi C. 8. Morris B. 24. Wildig A. (C) 9. Baker-Richardson C. 7. Kamwa B.	1. Ripley C. (G) 27. Cover B. 5. Hall C. 22. Debrah J. 24. Kyle John 7. Byers G. 8. Garrity B. (C) 19. Tolaj L. 10. Chislett E. 37. Baker-Boaitey B. 9. Stockley J.
Substitutes
13. Carney J. (G) 17. Evans K. 10. Greaves O. 25. Hudlin K. 31. Jephcott L. 18. Rai K. 29. Sanca N.	13. Amos B. (G) 32. Hackford A. 4. Heneghan B. 16. Lowe J. 17. Paton R. 26. Richards R. 20. Sang T.
Coaches
Jardim N.	Moore D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
6', McLoughlin S. ↓, Sanca N. ↑,
6', 0 - 1, Stockley J. ⚽, Baker-Boaitey B. (A),
24', 1 - 1, Wildig A. ⚽, Driscoll-Glennon A. (A),
35', Driscoll-Glennon A. 🟨,
36', 1 - 2, Stockley J. ⚽, Tolaj L. (A),
37', Cover B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 1 - 3, Chislett E. ⚽, Tolaj L. (A),
51', Evans C. 🟨,
54', 1 - 4, Tolaj L. ⚽, Kyle John (A),
54', Jameson K. 🟨,
55', Baker-Boaitey B. ↓, Richards R. ↑,
59', Brennan C. 🟥,
63', Antwi C. ↓, Evans K. ↑,
63', Baker-Richardson C. ↓, Hudlin K. ↑,
66', Byers G. ↓, Lowe J. ↑,
67', Jameson K. 🟨,
67', Cover B. ↓, Sang T. ↑,
69', Kamwa B. ↓, Greaves O. ↑,
74', Stockley J. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
74', Chislett E. ↓, Paton R. ↑,
85', Wildig A. 🟨,
90+8', Hackford A. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newport won 4.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Port Vale will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Newport won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Newport won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newport County
English EFL Trophy
03.09.24	Newport County - Cheltenham Town	1:2 ✺
English League Two
31.08.24	Morecambe - Newport County	0:1 ✺
24.08.24	Newport County - Accrington Stanley	3:1 ✺
17.08.24	Newport County - Doncaster Rovers	3:1 ✺
English League Cup
13.08.24	Leyton Orient - Newport County	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LWWWL
- Port Vale
English EFL Trophy
03.09.24	Port Vale - Wolverhampton Wanderers U21	3:2 penalties ✺
English League Two
31.08.24	Port Vale - Doncaster Rovers	2:3 ✺
24.08.24	Barrow - Port Vale	4:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
20.08.24	Salford City - Port Vale	0:2 ✺
English League Two
17.08.24	Port Vale - Tranmere Rovers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
02.05.22	Port Vale - Newport County	1:2
11.12.21	Newport County - Port Vale	2:1
16.03.21	Port Vale - Newport County	2:1
21.11.20	Newport County - Port Vale	1:0
07.09.19	Newport County - Port Vale	1:0
29.01.19	Newport County - Port Vale	0:0
01.09.18	Port Vale - Newport County	1:2

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