Match Info

League One - Round 5

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Vale Park (Stoke on Trent)

Referee: Ricardo R. (Eng)


	Port Vale		Doncaster Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.9	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.5
	2.48	3.05	2.92	Watch
	2.54	3.25	2.97
	2.78	2.47	3.28	Watch
	2.75	3	2.5
	2.52	3.03	2.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↑ (2.3)	3 ↓ (3.25)	2.86 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Port Vale
35.8%

Draw
31.3%

Doncaster Rovers
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

28.2%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

28.7%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Port Vale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Doncaster Rovers has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Doncaster Rovers than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Port Vale - Doncaster Rovers Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Port Vale will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Doncaster will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Port Vale (votes: 2 - 50%). Doncaster (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Port Vale (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Port Vale (votes: 3 - 60%). Doncaster (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Gauci J. (G) 25. Humphreys C. 5. Hall C. 3. Headley J. 2. Clark M. 8. Garrity B. (C) 26. Shipley J. 14. Ojo F. 24. Kyle John 19. Waine B. 36. Faal M.	29. Lo-Tutala T. (G) 16. Nixon T. 12. O'Riordan C. 6. McGrath J. 23. Senior J. 4. Bailey O. (C) 8. Broadbent G. 7. Molyneux L. 15. Clifton H. 17. Middleton G. 14. Sharp B.
Substitutes
18. Croasdale R. 11. Curtis R. 22. Debrah J. 15. Gordon L. 1. Marosi M. (G) 20. Richards R. 12. Walters R.	19. Ajayi D. 18. Crew C. 11. Gibson J. 9. Hanlan B. 1. Lawlor I. (G) 3. Maxwell J. 5. Pearson M.
Coaches
Moore D.	McCann G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Humphreys C. 🟨,
40', McGrath J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Senior J. ↓, Maxwell J. ↑,
46', McGrath J. ↓, Pearson M. ↑,
54', 0 - 1, Bailey O. ⚽, Middleton G. (A),
62', Faal M. ↓, Curtis R. ↑,
62', Garrity B. ↓, Croasdale R. ↑,
62', Headley J. ↓, Gordon L. ↑,
70', Ojo F. ↓, Walters R. ↑,
78', Middleton G. ↓, Gibson J. ↑,
79', Kyle John ↓, Richards R. ↑,
83', 🟨,
90+2', Molyneux L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 3.

Port Vale has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Doncaster is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Doncaster may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Port Vale: Amos B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Doncaster: Sterry J. (Broken cheekbone)

There are questionable in Port Vale: Ojo F. (Injury) Paton R. (Muscle Injury) Shipley J. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Port Vale won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:7. (average 1.9:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Port Vale won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 2.7:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Doncaster Rovers - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 31.86%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Port Vale
English League One
19.08.25	Port Vale - Stevenage Borough	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Burton Albion - Port Vale	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Blackpool - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
English League One
07.08.25	Port Vale - Cardiff City	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Rotherham United - Port Vale	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LTWTL
- Doncaster Rovers
English League One
19.08.25	Huddersfield Town - Doncaster Rovers	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Doncaster Rovers - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Middlesbrough - Doncaster Rovers	0:4 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Mansfield Town - Doncaster Rovers	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Doncaster Rovers - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
04.01.25	Doncaster Rovers - Port Vale	1:2
English EFL Trophy
10.12.24	Doncaster Rovers - Port Vale	0:1
English League Two
31.08.24	Port Vale - Doncaster Rovers	2:3
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Doncaster Rovers - Port Vale	1:0
English EFL Trophy
08.11.16	Doncaster Rovers - Port Vale	0:1 penalties
English League One
26.01.16	Doncaster Rovers - Port Vale	1:2
22.08.15	Port Vale - Doncaster Rovers	3:0

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