Match Info

NORTHERN IRELAND: NIFL Championship - Round 10

Date: 4 October 2024, Friday

Location: The Showgrounds (Newry)


	Newry City		Ards

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.75	2.7
	2.2	3.75	2.8
	2.13	3.85	2.66
	2.18	3.92	2.85	Watch
	1.95	3.7	3.1
	2.09	3.74	2.83
	2.2	3.75	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.77)	3.78 ↑ (3.75)	2.82 ↓ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newry City
43.3%

Draw
24.2%

Ards
32.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

24.3%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

21.5%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Newry City's form might have worsened.

Ards has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ards's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ards than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ards, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Newry City - Ards Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Cafolla P. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Carson M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
54', 1 - 2, McNilckle R. ⚽,
57', Healy N. 🟥,
79', 1 - 3, Scannell E. ⚽,
85', 1 - 4, Scannell C. ⚽,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 in the zone NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: ) and 8 in the zone NIFL Championship (Relegation Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newry City won 4.

Recent matches Newry City is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ards is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recently Ards have a series of home games.

Newry City will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Newry City won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:12 (average 1.7:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Newry City won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12:1 (average 2.4:0.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newry City
Northern Irish Championship
28.09.24	Harland & Wolff Welders - Newry City	2:1 ✺
20.09.24	Newry City - Ballyclare Comrades	2:1 ✺
14.09.24	Annagh United - Newry City	1:0 ✺
06.09.24	Newry City - Bangor	4:5 ✺
27.08.24	Newry City - Ballinamallard United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWLLW
- Ards FC
Northern Irish Championship
28.09.24	Ards - Institute FC	0:0 ✺
21.09.24	Ards - Harland & Wolff Welders	3:1 ✺
14.09.24	Ballyclare Comrades - Ards	3:2 ✺
07.09.24	Ards - Dundela	0:1 ✺
27.08.24	Ards - Bangor	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
12.03.22	Newry City - Ards	4:0
Northern Irish Cup
04.02.22	Newry City - Ards	1:0
Northern Irish Championship
29.10.21	Ards - Newry City	1:1
27.08.21	Newry City - Ards	2:1
Northern Irish Premiership
05.04.19	Newry City - Ards	3:0
23.02.19	Ards - Newry City	3:1
17.11.18	Newry City - Ards	2:0

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