Match Info

NIFL Championship - Relegation Group - Round 38

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: The Showgrounds (Newry)


	Newry City		Institute FC

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.5	2.37
	2.75	3.65	2.27
	2.67	3.56	2.23
	2.76	3.68	2.32	Watch
	2.65	3.72	2.21
	2.75	3.65	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.47)	3.63 ↓ (3.67)	2.28 ↓ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newry City
34.4%

Draw
25.3%

Institute FC
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

25.1%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

24.6%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Institute FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newry City than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Institute FC than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Newry City - Institute FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Deery C. ⚽,
23', 0 - 2, McCay C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
67', 0 - 3, Kennedy M. ⚽,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newry City won 2.

Newry City is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Institute is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Institute have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Newry City won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 13:15 (average 1:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Newry City won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:8 (average 1.5:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Institute FC - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.68%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newry City
Northern Irish Championship
19.04.25	Newington - Newry City	3:2 ✺
12.04.25	Armagh City - Newry City	4:1 ✺
05.04.25	Newry City - Ballyclare Comrades	2:2 ✺
01.04.25	Newry City - Ballinamallard United	3:0 ✺
22.03.25	Limavady United - Newry City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTWL
- Institute FC
Northern Irish Championship
19.04.25	Institute FC - Armagh City	4:3 ✺
12.04.25	Institute FC - Ballyclare Comrades	2:1 ✺
05.04.25	Ballinamallard United - Institute FC	2:0 ✺
01.04.25	Institute FC - Newington	3:3 ✺
22.03.25	Institute FC - Annagh United	2:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Northern Irish Championship
15.02.25	Institute FC - Newry City	1:1
12.10.24	Institute FC - Newry City	2:0
01.01.22	Institute FC - Newry City	0:0
16.10.21	Institute FC - Newry City	1:2
14.08.21	Newry City - Institute FC	5:1
Northern Irish League Cup
29.10.19	Newry City - Institute FC	0:1
Northern Irish Premiership
23.04.19	Institute FC - Newry City	2:1

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