Match Info

League Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Latham Park (Newtown)


	Newtown		Bala Town

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.4	1.95
	3.3	3.5	2
	3.17	3.45	1.98
	1.82	3.39	4.21	Watch
	3.28	3.44	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.21)	3.44 ↓ (3.7)	2.43 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
32.6%

Draw
27.9%

Bala Town
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

25.1%

46%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.1%

24.4%

47.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bala Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bala Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Newtown - Bala Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Bala Town (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', 1 - 0, Hollinshead T. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Mehasseb H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Penalties (5 - 4)
1, Draper G. (Pen),
1, McGiveron D. (Pen),
2, Torry D. (Pen),
2, Mehasseb H. (Pen),
3, Jacobs L. (Pen),
3, Tarasenko J. (Pen),
4, Sharp O. (Pen),
4, Hall L. (Pen),
5, McCann A. (Pen),
5, Burke N. (Pen),
6, Hollinshead T. (Pen),
6, Mendes L. (Pen),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Newtown won 0.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Bala Town may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Bala Town will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Newtown won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 21:41. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Newtown won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 1:2).

Last Results with these Odds

Newtown - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 28.93%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru North
06.09.25	Llandudno - Newtown	2:0 ✺
25.08.25	Newtown - Caersws	2:1 ✺
22.08.25	Airbus UK Broughton - Newtown	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Newtown - Flint Mountain	3:1 ✺
08.08.25	Penrhyncoch - Newtown	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWTWW
- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
06.09.25	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	0:0 ✺
02.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Llanelli - Bala Town	0:1 ✺
25.08.25	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bala Town - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
02.11.24	Newtown - Bala Town	0:0
20.09.24	Bala Town - Newtown	2:2
05.04.24	Bala Town - Newtown	1:1
24.02.24	Newtown - Bala Town	1:5
30.12.23	Bala Town - Newtown	2:1
30.09.23	Newtown - Bala Town	1:0
05.05.23	Bala Town - Newtown	2:4

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