Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 6

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Maes Tegid (Bala)

Referee: Owen T. (Wal)


	Bala Town		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.6	1.6
	4.85	3.6	1.65
	4.99	3.7	1.65
	4.74	3.55	1.73	Watch
	4.95	3.65	1.65
	3.99	3.4	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.69 ↑ (3.71)	3.58 ↑ (3.33)	1.69 ↓ (1.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bala Town
19.7%

Draw
25.7%

Pen-y-Bont
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.9%

27.8%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.8%

29.1%

49.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bala Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bala Town's form might have worsened.

Pen-y-Bont has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pen-y-Bont's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bala Town than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pen-y-Bont, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Bala Town - Pen y Bont Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Torrance J. (G) 5. Bell W. 8. Burke N. (C) 44. Dean H. 3. Hall L. 11. Higgins L. 17. Ibrahim O. 99. Mehasseb H. 10. Owen J. 9. Tarasenko J. 23. White R.	24. Matthews A. (G) 21. Baker A. 33. Cvetkovic A. 11. Daley N. 6. Davies M. 29. Green C. 4. Kircough G. 3. Owen K. (C) 9. Venables C. 5. Woodiwiss J. 7. Wood N.
Substitutes
77. Beck L. 27. Billington S. 14. Lumeka L. 22. Nicholas R. 28. Roberts C. 19. Smith E. 16. Walls J.	16. Borge B. 20. Clarke C. (G) 15. Clay J. 10. Crole J. 18. Jones J. 30. Little M. 14. Phillips I.
Coaches
Fisher S.	Griffiths R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Tarasenko J. ↓, Billington S. ↑,
69', Venables C. ↓, Crole J. ↑,
70', Baker A. ↓, Clay J. ↑,
82', Hall L. ↓, Walls J. ↑,
88', Higgins L. ↓, Roberts C. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 2.

Bala Town is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Pen-y-Bont has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bala Town may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Pen-y-Bont is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Bala Town won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 49:22. (average 2.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bala Town won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 29:9. (average 2.9:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bala Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
02.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Bala Town	1:3 ✺
30.08.25	Llanelli - Bala Town	0:1 ✺
25.08.25	Caernarfon Town - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Bala Town - Colwyn Bay	1:0 ✺
08.08.25	Bala Town - Flint Town United	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLWT
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
30.08.25	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	0:1 ✺
25.08.25	Pen-y-Bont - Llanelli	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Barry Town United - Pen-y-Bont	2:3 ✺
16.08.25	Pen-y-Bont - The New Saints	0:2 ✺
08.08.25	Haverfordwest County - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
19.04.25	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	3:2
08.03.25	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	3:2
26.10.24	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	1:1
31.08.24	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	1:2
02.12.23	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	0:2
02.09.23	Bala Town - Pen-y-Bont	2:1
25.03.23	Pen-y-Bont - Bala Town	2:2

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