Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 23

Date: 24 January 2025, Friday

Location: Latham Park (Newtown)

Referee: Pratt N. (Wal)


	Newtown		Briton Ferry Llansawel

	1	X	2
	1.78	3.6	3.5
	1.81	3.35	3.4
	1.89	3.7	3.75
	1.88	3.75	3.77	Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.7
	1.83	3.76	3.7	Watch
	1.81	3.35	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.02)	3.59 ↓ (4)	3.6 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
49.5%

Draw
25.3%

Briton Ferry Llansawel
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.6%

23%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

22.2%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Briton Ferry Llansawel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Briton Ferry Llansawel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newtown that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Briton Ferry Llansawel than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Briton Ferry Llansawel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Newtown will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Briton Ferry will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Schwarzer J. (G) 8. Evans R. 11. Ismail Z. 9. Oswell J. 37. Reid R. 23. Sharp O. 22. Smith C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 14. Williams A. 19. Williams C.	13. Fuller W. (G) 2. Bates L. 19. Bevan R. 10. Bowen L. 22. Dyer R. 4. Gammond A. 18. George R. 11. Hurford C. 24. Jenkins K. 3. Sanca N. 9. Walters T.
Substitutes
17. Boakye H. 4. Martin D. 35. McCann A. 18. Tahra W. 34. Taylor J. 12. Torry D. 13. Ussher S. (G)	7. Brock T. 14. Demery C. 20. Payne J. 23. Rickard W. 17. Sage E. 6. Williams K. 1. Wilson R. (G)
Coaches
McKenzie C.	Dyer A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Williams A. ⚽,
23', 2 - 0, Oswell J. ⚽,
31', Ismail Z. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 1, Hurford C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
69', 2 - 2, Bowen L. ⚽,
71', Sharp O. ↓, Martin D. ↑,
71', Reid R. ↓, Tahra W. ↑,
74', Dyer R. ↓, Brock T. ↑,
74', Bevan R. ↓, Rickard W. ↑,
78', George R. ↓, Demery C. ↑,
79', Bowen L. ↓, Payne J. ↑,
86', Ismail Z. ↓, Torry D. ↑,
90+5', Walters T. 🟨,

Preview

Newtown has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Briton Ferry is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recently Briton Ferry have a series of guest games.

Newtown will have a mini benefit in this match.

Our prediction for today's Briton Ferry to win the game is with odds 3.6.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Newtown won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:2 (average 1:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Newtown won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
14.01.25	Newtown - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
04.01.25	The New Saints - Newtown	2:1 ✺
01.01.25	Flint Town United - Newtown	2:0 ✺
26.12.24	Newtown - Haverfordwest County	0:2 ✺
03.12.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Briton Ferry Llansawel
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.01.25	Aberystwyth Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:6 ✺
04.01.25	Haverfordwest County - Briton Ferry Llansawel	5:1 ✺
31.12.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Barry Town United	0:0 ✺
26.12.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:3 ✺
22.12.24	The New Saints - Briton Ferry Llansawel	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
03.12.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown	2:1
07.09.24	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:0

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