Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Relegation Group - Round 28

Date: 11 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Old Road (Briton Ferry)

Referee: Morgan D. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	S4C Clic, S4C


	Briton Ferry Llansawel		Newtown

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.4	2.4
	2.47	3.55	2.55
	2.7	3.5	2.48
	2.64	3.51	2.49	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.5
	2.47	3.6	2.46	Watch
	2.47	3.55	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.58)	3.52 ↓ (3.73)	2.49 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Briton Ferry Llansawel
36.7%

Draw
26.3%

Newtown
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.6%

24.7%

39.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

23.9%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Briton Ferry Llansawel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Newtown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Briton Ferry Llansawel than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (+4%)

Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
z 13. Fuller W. (G) 7. Brock T. 16. Davies R. 14. Demery C. 4. Gammond A. 11. Hurford C. 24. Jenkins K. 21. Owen R. 3. Sanca N. 9. Walters T. 6. Williams K.	1. Schwarzer J. (G) 24. Hughes G. 11. Ismail Z. 4. Martin D. 9. Oswell J. 37. Reid R. 22. Smith C. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 14. Williams A. 31. Williams C.
Substitutes
2. Bates L. 22. Dyer R. 15. Norris J. 20. Payne J. 23. Rickard W. 17. Sage E. 1. Wilson R. (G)	8. Evans R. 20. Harries J. 26. Rainbird J. 23. Sharp O. 18. Tahra W. 12. Torry D. 13. Ussher S. (G)
Coaches
Dyer A.	McKenzie C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Brock T. 🟨,
42', Gammond A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', Ismail Z. ↓, Rainbird J. ↑,
61', Demery C. ↓, Dyer R. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Dyer R. ⚽,
72', Walters T. ↓, Bates L. ↑,
76', 🟨,
80', 🟨,
82', 🟨,
83', 1 - 1, Oswell J. ⚽,
90+1', Hurford C. ↓, Payne J. ↑,
90+3', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Briton Ferry is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Newtown is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Briton Ferry won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 1.3:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Briton Ferry won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Briton Ferry Llansawel
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.03.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Barry Town United	3:4 ✺
22.02.25	Flint Town United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	3:1 ✺
08.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1 ✺
01.02.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Aberystwyth Town	2:3 ✺
24.01.25	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWLT
- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.03.25	Newtown - Flint Town United	2:2 ✺
22.02.25	Aberystwyth Town - Newtown	0:1 ✺
08.02.25	Newtown - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Newtown	1:0 ✺
24.01.25	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
24.01.25	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2
03.12.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown	2:1
07.09.24	Newtown - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:0

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