Match Info

WALES: Cymru Premier - Round 22

Date: 14 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Latham Park (Newtown)

Referee: Griffith I. A. (Wal)


	Newtown		Pen-y-Bont

	1	X	2
				Watch
	5	3.5	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	5 ↓ (7.25)	3.5 ↓ (5.25)	1.65 ↑ (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newtown
18.3%

Draw
26.2%

Pen-y-Bont
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.8%

17.7%

69.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12%

16.5%

74.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newtown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Newtown's performance.

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pen-y-Bont might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newtown than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Newtown that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+18.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pen-y-Bont could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Newtown - Pen y Bont Predictions

Users Predictions: Pen-y-Bont will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Ussher S. (G) 8. Evans R. 11. Ismail Z. 9. Oswell J. 3. Roberts C. 23. Sharp O. 27. Smith D. 6. Sutton S. 12. Torry D. 14. Williams A. 34. Williams C.	1. Przybek A. (G) 16. Borge B. 10. Crole J. 29. Green C. 24. Morgan B. 3. Owen K. (C) 18. Pritchard O. 22. Reffell K. 9. Venables C. 31. Watts K. 15. Woodiwiss J.
Substitutes
17. Boakye H. 33. Hollinshead T. 35. McCann A. 32. Roberts A. 22. Smith C. 16. Taylor J.	21. Bregua E. 7. Georgievsky K. 17. Jones J. 30. Little M. 14. Phillips I. 11. Ware L.
Coaches
McKenzie C.	Griffiths R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Pritchard O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Pritchard O. ⚽,
51', 1 - 2, Smith D. ⚽,
53', Venables C. 🟨,
58', Borge B. 🟨,
58', Roberts C. 🟨,
71', Watts K. ↓, Little M. ↑,
76', Crole J. ↓, Georgievsky K. ↑,
78', Williams C. ↓, Hollinshead T. ↑,
78', Torry D. ↓, Boakye H. ↑,
90+3', Evans R. ↓, Roberts A. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 10 in the zone Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier (Championship Group: )).

Newtown is Cymru Premier (Relegation Group )

Pen-y-Bont is Qualified for Cymru Premier (Championship Group )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Newtown won 0.

Newtown has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Pen-y-Bont is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Pen-y-Bont is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Pen-y-Bont to win the game is with odds 1.59.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Newtown won 7 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 22:26 (average 1.2:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Newtown won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:17 (average 1.3:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newtown AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.01.25	The New Saints - Newtown	2:1 ✺
01.01.25	Flint Town United - Newtown	2:0 ✺
26.12.24	Newtown - Haverfordwest County	0:2 ✺
03.12.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Newtown	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Newtown - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
04.01.25	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0 ✺
31.12.24	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:2 ✺
26.12.24	Barry Town United - Pen-y-Bont	1:2 ✺
03.12.24	Pen-y-Bont - Haverfordwest County	1:0 ✺
23.11.24	The New Saints - Pen-y-Bont	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
16.08.24	Pen-y-Bont - Newtown	0:0
11.05.24	Newtown - Pen-y-Bont	0:5
19.11.23	Pen-y-Bont - Newtown	1:1
12.08.23	Newtown - Pen-y-Bont	1:3
22.04.23	Pen-y-Bont - Newtown	2:1
18.03.23	Newtown - Pen-y-Bont	0:1
28.01.23	Pen-y-Bont - Newtown	3:0

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