Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium (Yerevan)

Referee: Sariev B. (Kaz)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Noah Yerevan		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.25	2.25
	3.05	3.35	2.22
	3.26	3.4	2.33
	3.01	3.42	2.34	Watch
	3	3.2	2.3
	3.16	3.39	2.38
	3.1	3.33	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.78)	3.33 ↑ (3.29)	2.3 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Noah Yerevan
30.4%

Draw
28.4%

Legia Warsaw
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

28.2%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

27.6%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Noah Yerevan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noah Yerevan than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31%	27.6%	41.4%

Noah Yerevan - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Noah will win (votes: 9 - 31%). Legia will win (votes: 12 - 41.4%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 27.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 23.5% – 59.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Noah (votes: 2 - 25%). Legia (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Noah (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Noah (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Legia (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Fayulu T. (G) 39. Saintini N. 37. Silva G. (C) 33. Sualehe D. 6. Boakye E. 7. Ferreira H. 14. Oshima T. 4. Thorarinsson G. 47. Jakolis M. 32. Mulahusejnovic N. 9. Matheus Aias	1. Tobiasz K. (G) 7. Wszolek P. (C) 91. Piatkowski K. 3. Kapuadi S. 13. Reca A. 5. Goncalves C. 44. Szymanski D. 77. Krasniqi E. 82. Urbanski K. 19. Vinagre R. 29. Rajovic M.
Substitutes
18. Avanesyan A. 22. Cancarevic O. (G) 10. Dashyan A. 88. Eteki Y. 77. Grgic A. 19. Hambardzumyan H. 27. Manvelyan G. 3. Muradyan S. 17. Sangare G.	8. Augustyniak R. 50. Banasik W. (G) 21. Bichakhchyan V. 4. Burch M. 11. Chodyna K. 14. Colak A. 67. Kapustka B. 27. Kobylak G. (G) 30. Stojanovic P. 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Perkovic S.	Astiz I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Rajovic M. ⚽,
37', Matheus Aias 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 1 - 1, Matheus Aias ⚽, Mulahusejnovic N. (A),
72', Urbanski K. ↓, Kapustka B. ↑,
72', Vinagre R. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
72', Jakolis M. ↓, Grgic A. ↑,
72', Matheus Aias ↓, Sangare G. ↑,
77', Goncalves C. ↓, Augustyniak R. ↑,
79', Szymanski D. 🟨,
82', Krasniqi E. ↓, Bichakhchyan V. ↑,
82', Rajovic M. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
84', 2 - 1, Mulahusejnovic N. ⚽,
88', Saintini N. ↓, Muradyan S. ↑,
90+2', Thorarinsson G. ↓, Eteki Y. ↑,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Noah: Gregorio G. (Knee Injury) Zolotic N. (Inactive)

There will not play in Legia: Elitim J. (Injury) Nsame J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Noah: Harutyunyan H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Legia: Pankov R. (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Noah Yerevan
Armenian Premier League
06.12.25	Noah Yerevan - BKMA Yerevan	2:3 ✺
02.12.25	Van - Noah Yerevan	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Aberdeen - Noah Yerevan	1:1 ✺
Armenian Premier League
22.11.25	Noah Yerevan - Alashkert	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Noah Yerevan - Sigma Olomouc	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTTL
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
06.12.25	Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw	2:0 ✺
01.12.25	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Sparta Prague	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
22.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
09.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Termalica Nieciecza	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTLTL

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