Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 5

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach (Gliwice)

Referee: Frankowski B. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Croatia	Arena Sport 7
Germany	Laola1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Piast Gliwice		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	3.60	3.40	1.95	Watch
	3.50	3.40	2.00
	3.30	3.35	2.05
	3.71	3.62	2.04
	3.62	3.56	2.04	Watch
	3.80	3.70	1.91
	3.71	3.50	2.01	Watch
	3.45	3.35	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.59 ↑ (3.34)	3.49 ↑ (3.15)	2 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Piast Gliwice
26.2%

Draw
26.9%

Legia Warsaw
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

30.2%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

29.6%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Piast Gliwice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Legia Warsaw's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Piast Gliwice than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Legia will win (votes: 15 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Legia: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Legia Warsaw will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
75. Gril D. (G) 99. Twumasi E. 5. Juande 4. Czerwinski J. (C) 3. Fikaj E. 98. Lokilo J. 27. Labojko J. 31. Lesniak O. 80. Vallejo H. 19. Ntamack S. 11. Sanca L.	89. Hindrich O. (G) 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. 5. Deziel R. 6. Arreiol H. 22. Wszolek P. 23. Sevcik M. 67. Kapustka B. (C) 19. Vinagre R. 79. Zjawinski L. 9. Adamski R.
Substitutes
17. Boisgard Q. 28. Borowski F. 7. Felix J. 10. Katsantonis A. 91. Kucharski M. 36. Lewicki J. 90. Lima I. 18. Maziarz O. 12. Mendes-Dudzinski M. (G) 77. Mucha S. 15. Pitan L.	24. Arsenic Z. 1. Brkic I. (G) 11. Chodyna K. 7. Kuchta J. 97. Mikanovich E. 77. Przybylko F. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 17. Szczepaniak M. 4. Szymanski D. 53. Urbanski W.
Coaches
Mysliwiec D.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Zjawinski L. ⚽, Augustyniak R. (A),
42', Deziel R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', Juande 🟨,
56', Fikaj E. ↓, Lewicki J. ↑,
56', Lokilo J. ↓, Lima I. ↑,
56', Lesniak O. ↓, Boisgard Q. ↑,
57', Wszolek P. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
81', Sevcik M. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
81', Zjawinski L. ↓, Rajovic M. ↑,
82', Arreiol H. ↓, Szymanski D. ↑,
90', Ntamack S. ↓, Katsantonis A. ↑,
90', Vinagre R. ↓, Chodyna K. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 1, Sanca L. ⚽, Lima I. (A),
90+10', Lima I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Piast won 4.

Piast is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Legia is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Piast may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Legia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Piast: Plach F. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Legia: Stojanovic P. (Tendon Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Piast won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Piast won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.3:1).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Legia: 13.85% Piast Gliwice: 0.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19
9	Piast Gliwice	9	4	1	4	16:15	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Legia Warsaw - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.34%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Piast Gliwice
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.08.26	Piast Gliwice - Wieczysta Kraków	3:4 ✺
09.08.26	Lech Poznań - Piast Gliwice	3:0 ✺
01.08.26	Piast Gliwice - Wisła Kraków	4:3 ✺
27.07.26	Zagłębie Lubin - Piast Gliwice	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
08.07.26	Piast Gliwice - Miedź Legnica	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLT
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.08.26	Legia Warsaw - Radomiak Radom	5:0 ✺
08.08.26	Korona Kielce - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	3:1 ✺
24.07.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Legia Warsaw - Aris Limassol	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
14.12.25	Legia Warsaw - Piast Gliwice	0:1
06.12.25	Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw	2:0
08.02.25	Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw	1:0
04.08.24	Legia Warsaw - Piast Gliwice	1:2
17.03.24	Legia Warsaw - Piast Gliwice	3:1
16.09.23	Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw	1:1
19.02.23	Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw	0:1

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