Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 22 January 2026, Thursday


	Legia Warsaw		Sparta Prague

	1	X	2
	7.22	1.28	6.04	Watch
	2.15	5.5	2.1
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.69 ↓ (7.22)	3.39 ↑ (1.28)	4.07 ↓ (6.04)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
28.3%

Draw
39.1%

Sparta Prague
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.8%

72%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.4%

75.5%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Legia Warsaw's performance.

Sparta Prague has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sparta Prague's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (-14.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Legia Warsaw that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Prague than the current prediction. (-18%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sparta Prague, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 21. Bichakhchyan V. 22. Elitim J. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. (C) 67. Kapustka B. 91. Piatkowski K. 29. Rajovic M. 13. Reca A. 30. Stojanovic P. 44. Szymanski D. 82. Urbanski K.	1. Vindahl P. (G) 22. Haraslin L. (C) 3. Kaderabek P. 6. Kairinen K. 20. Mannsverk S. 7. Mercado J. 9. Rrahmani A. 11. Rynes M. 19. Sevinsky A. 25. Sorensen A. 26. Vydra P.
Substitutes
6. Arreiol H. 50. Banasik W. (G) 11. Chodyna K. . Goncalves C. 23. Kun P. 5. Leszczynski J.	. Azaka L. 61. Kerl Dan. (G) 29. Moudry L. . Osmani E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 0 - 1, Piatkowski K. (Own goal),
77', Mercado J. ↓, Azaka L. ↑,

Preview

Neutral location.

In recent matches, Legia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sparta Prague is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Sparta Prague may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Legia has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Legia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Legia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Club Friendly
19.01.26	Legia Warsaw - Polissya Zhytomyr	0:0 ✺
16.01.26	Legia Warsaw - Sigma Olomouc	1:0 ✺
12.01.26	Legia Warsaw - Puskás Academy	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Legia Warsaw - Lincoln Red Imps	4:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.12.25	Legia Warsaw - Piast Gliwice	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWTWL
- AC Sparta Prague
Club Friendly
16.01.26	Malmö - Sparta Prague	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Sparta Prague - Aberdeen	3:0 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
14.12.25	Sparta Prague - Slovan Liberec	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Universitatea Craiova - Sparta Prague	1:2 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
06.12.25	Sigma Olomouc - Sparta Prague	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Sparta Prague	0:1
Club Friendly
03.07.13	Sparta Prague - Legia Warsaw	1:0
03.07.12	Legia Warsaw - Sparta Prague	N/A

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