Match Info

League One - Round 21

Date: 19 December 2025, Friday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Brook C. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		AFC Wimbledon

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.05	3.3	Watch
	2.28	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.35	3.16	3.37
	2.29	3.12	3.27	Watch
	2.25	3	3.25
	2.32	3.04	3.25	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.67)	3.07 ↓ (3.17)	3.28 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
41%

Draw
30.5%

AFC Wimbledon
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

29.4%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

28.8%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Northampton Town's performance.

AFC Wimbledon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AFC Wimbledon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Northampton Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AFC Wimbledon than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AFC Wimbledon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	33.3%	26.7%

Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Northampton will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Wimbledon will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Northampton: 15.2% – 64.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Northampton (votes: 1 - 50%). Wimbledon (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 3. McCarthy C. 15. Thorniley J. 18. Forbes M. 7. Hoskins S. (C) 23. Taylor T. 4. Campbell D. 12. Guinness-Walker N. 8. McGeehan C. 19. Wheatley E. 9. Eaves T.	1. Bishop N. (G) 33. Ogundere I. 31. Lewis J. 6. Johnson R. 2. Asiimwe N. 12. Smith A. 4. Reeves J. (C) 21. Hippolyte M. 3. Seddon S. 9. Bugiel O. 11. Browne M.
Substitutes
1. Burge L. (G) 2. Burroughs J. 35. Dyche M. 22. Edwards K. 5. Guthrie J. 10. List E. 11. Swyer K.	15. Bauer P. 16. Hackford A. 8. Maycock C. 20. McDonnell J. (G) 30. Nkeng R. 7. Orsi-Dadomo D. 14. Stevens M.
Coaches
Nolan K.	Jackson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, McCarthy C. ⚽, Campbell D. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Browne M. ⚽,
26', Thorniley J. 🟨,
39', Forbes M. ↓, Dyche M. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Campbell D. ↓, Swyer K. ↑,
47', Asiimwe N. 🟨,
50', 2 - 1, McGeehan C. ⚽, Thorniley J. (A),
59', 3 - 1, McGeehan C. ⚽, McCarthy C. (A),
72', Asiimwe N. ↓, Nkeng R. ↑,
72', Bugiel O. ↓, Stevens M. ↑,
76', Hoskins S. 🟨,
80', Eaves T. ↓, Burroughs J. ↑,
80', Hoskins S. ↓, List E. ↑,
80', Hippolyte M. ↓, Hackford A. ↑,
85', Reeves J. 🟨,
90+1', Wheatley E. ↓, Edwards K. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 15 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Northampton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Northampton: Perkins J. (Red Card) Shaw L. (Knee Injury) Vale J. (Injury) Wormleighton J. (Injury)

There will not play in Wimbledon: Stevens M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Northampton: Thorniley J. (Inactive) Willis J. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:13. (average 1.2:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:7. (average 0.9:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

AFC Wimbledon - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 35.62%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English League One
13.12.25	Peterborough United - Northampton Town	2:1 ✺
09.12.25	Northampton Town - Huddersfield Town	1:1 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Northampton Town - Wycombe Wanderers	2:0 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Plymouth Argyle - Northampton Town	0:3 ✺
22.11.25	Northampton Town - Cardiff City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 LTWWL
- AFC Wimbledon
English League One
13.12.25	AFC Wimbledon - Mansfield Town	0:0 ✺
09.12.25	Exeter City - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Cardiff City - AFC Wimbledon	1:5 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Huddersfield Town - AFC Wimbledon	3:3 ✺
22.11.25	AFC Wimbledon - Wigan Athletic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
14.02.23	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:0
13.09.22	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	0:2
English League Cup
24.08.21	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:1
English League One
27.03.21	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	1:0
12.09.20	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	2:2
10.02.18	AFC Wimbledon - Northampton Town	1:3
14.10.17	Northampton Town - AFC Wimbledon	0:1

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