Match Info

League One - Round 17

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Sixfields Stadium (Northampton)

Referee: Hair N. (Eng)


	Northampton Town		Cardiff City

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.7	1.91	Watch
	3.55	3.55	1.98	Watch
	3.37	3.57	2.09
	3.21	3.63	2.07	Watch
	3.59	3.8	2	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (3.21)	3.65 ↑ (3.63)	2.01 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northampton Town
27.3%

Draw
25.8%

Cardiff City
46.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

25.7%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

25.2%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Cardiff City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cardiff City than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	9.1%	81.8%

Northampton Town - Cardiff City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cardiff (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Cardiff City will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 3. McCarthy C. 18. Forbes M. 15. Thorniley J. 2. Burroughs J. 23. Taylor T. (C) 4. Campbell D. 21. Perkins J. 14. Fornah T. 9. Eaves T. 19. Wheatley E.	13. Trott N. (G) 44. Kpakio R. 2. Fish W. 12. Chambers C. (C) 3. Bagan J. 27. Colwill J. 6. Wintle R. 8. Kellyman O. 10. Colwill R. 39. Davies I. 22. Salech Y.
Substitutes
1. Burge L. (G) 35. Dyche M. 22. Edwards K. 17. Jacobs M. 10. List E. 11. Swyer K. 6. Willis J.	38. Ng P. 4. Osho G. 18. Robertson A. 47. Robinson C. 14. Turnbull D. 41. Turner M. (G) 16. Willock C.
Coaches
Nolan K.	Barry-Murphy B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Colwill J. ⚽, Kpakio R. (A),
19', Colwill R. ↓, Turnbull D. ↑,
20', Fish W. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', Colwill J. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Wheatley E. ⚽, Forbes M. (A),
58', Davies I. ↓, Willock C. ↑,
58', Colwill J. ↓, Robertson A. ↑,
58', Kellyman O. ↓, Ng P. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Wheatley E. (Own goal),
72', Eaves T. ↓, List E. ↑,
72', Fornah T. ↓, Swyer K. ↑,
81', Fish W. ↓, Osho G. ↑,
90+1', Burroughs J. ↓, Dyche M. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 3, Willock C. ⚽, Kpakio R. (A),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ League One (Play Offs: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Cardiff has had a series of away games.

Cardiff is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Northampton: Hoskins S. (Injury) Vale J. (Injury) Wormleighton J. (Injury)

There will not play in Cardiff: King E. (Knee Injury) Ng P. (Inactive) Tanner O. (Ankle Injury) Willock C. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Northampton: Dyche M. (Inactive) Guinness-Walker N. (Injury) Shaw L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cardiff: Alnwick J. (Hamstring Injury) Parfitt T. (Injury) Pearce L. (Injury) Perrett T. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Northampton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Northampton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Cardiff City - the odds 2.07 are the expected chance of winning is 45.14%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northampton Town
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Northampton Town - Shrewsbury Town	2:1 ✺
English League One
08.11.25	Northampton Town - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Oldham Athletic - Northampton Town	3:1 ✺
English League One
25.10.25	Northampton Town - Luton Town	0:1 ✺
21.10.25	Reading - Northampton Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLLL
- Cardiff City
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Cardiff City - Arsenal U21	3:1 ✺
English League One
08.11.25	Blackpool - Cardiff City	3:1 ✺
English FA Cup
01.11.25	Peterborough United - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
28.10.25	Wrexham - Cardiff City	1:2 ✺
English League One
25.10.25	Bolton Wanderers - Cardiff City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
05.09.20	Northampton Town - Cardiff City	3:0
14.08.12	Northampton Town - Cardiff City	2:1

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