Match Info

Victoria Premier League - Round 11

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: John Cain Memorial Park (Melbourne)


	Northcote City		Melbourne Victory Youth

	1	X	2
	2.08	3.85	2.72
	2.21	3.9	2.43
	2.18	4.11	2.59	Watch
	2	3.5	2.9
	1.95	3.9	3.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↑ (1.69)	3.85 ↓ (4.33)	2.73 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northcote City
43.4%

Draw
23.5%

Melbourne Victory Youth
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

20.9%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

21.5%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northcote City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Northcote City's form might have worsened.

Melbourne Victory Youth has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Melbourne Victory Youth's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northcote City than the current prediction. (+11.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Northcote City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Melbourne Victory Youth than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Melbourne Victory Youth, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Northcote City - Melbourne Victory Youth Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria and 8).

Northcote City has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Victory Youth is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Northcote City has had a series of away games.

In this match, Northcote City is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Northcote City won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Northcote City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northcote City FC
Australian Victoria Premier League
24.04.26	Eltham Redbacks - Northcote City	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Northcote City - Port Melbourne Sharks	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Manningham United - Northcote City	0:2 ✺
27.03.26	Melbourne Knights - Northcote City	3:0 ✺
21.03.26	Melbourne Srbija - Northcote City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 TTWLW
- Melbourne Victory Youth
Australian Victoria Premier League
25.04.26	Melbourne Srbija - Melbourne Victory Youth	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	North Sunshine Eagles - Melbourne Victory Youth	1:4 ✺
11.04.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - North Geelong Warriors	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Langwarrin	3:3 ✺
23.03.26	Melbourne Victory Youth - Western United U21	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Australian Victoria Premier League
19.05.24	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	1:2
Australian NPL Victoria
28.05.16	Northcote City - Melbourne Victory Youth	3:0
19.02.16	Melbourne Victory Youth - Northcote City	1:0

Northcote City - Melbourne Victory Youth: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide