Match Info

Championship - Round 24

Date: 29 December 2025, Monday

Location: Carrow Road (Norwich)

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)


	Norwich City		Watford

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.3	2.65	Watch
	2.57	3.46	2.67	Watch
	2.58	3.44	2.67	Watch
	2.63	3.1	2.63
	2.77	3.41	2.66	Watch
	2.62	3.33	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↓ (2.78)	3.34 ↓ (3.38)	2.67 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Norwich City
36.2%

Draw
28.3%

Watford
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

27.7%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

27.3%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Norwich City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Norwich City than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.4%	28.6%	40%

Norwich City - Watford Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Norwich will win (votes: 11 - 32.4%). Watford will win (votes: 14 - 41.2%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 26.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watford: 24.7% – 57.7%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Norwich (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Watford (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Norwich (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Watford (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Norwich (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Norwich (votes: 9 - 60%). Watford (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kovacevic V. (G) 35. Fisher K. 15. McConville R. 6. Darling H. 47. Mahovo L. 23. McLean K. 7. Mattsson P. 42. Springett T. 16. Wright J. 29. Schwartau O. 9. Sargent J.	1. Selvik E. (G) 2. Ngakia J. 3. Alleyne M. 6. Pollock M. 16. Bola M. 42. Maamma O. 5. Kyprianou H. 10. Louza I. 7. Ince T. 8. Chakvetadze G. 9. Kjerrumgaard L.
Substitutes
14. Chrisene B. 33. Cordoba J. 8. Gibbs L. 32. Grimshaw D. (G) 10. Jurasek M. 30. Kvistgaarden M. 24. Makama J. 20. Slimane A. 3. Stacey J.	25. Abankwah J. 12. Baxter N. (G) 66. Irankunda N. 4. Keben K. 23. Mendy N. 22. Morris J. 53. Nabizada A. 18. Semedo V. 17. Sissoko M.
Coaches
Clement P.	Gracia J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Semedo V. ↑,
60', Mahovo L. ↓, Chrisene B. ↑,
60', Wright J. ↓, Makama J. ↑,
66', Ngakia J. 🟨,
66', Ngakia J. ↓, Abankwah J. ↑,
66', Louza I. ↓, Mendy N. ↑,
71', Springett T. ↓, Gibbs L. ↑,
79', Maamma O. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
83', Schwartau O. ↓, Stacey J. ↑,
83', Sargent J. ↓, Kvistgaarden M. ↑,
86', Ince T. ↓, Sissoko M. ↑,
90', 0 - 1, Semedo V. ⚽, Irankunda N. (A),

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 23 in the zone Relegation ~ League One and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Norwich won 4.

Norwich has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Watford is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Norwich: Crnac A. (Knee Injury) Diallo P. A. (Muscle Injury) Schlupp J. (Hamstring Injury) Topic M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Watford: Baah K. (Hamstring Injury) Doumbia M. (International duty) Grieves J. (Ankle Injury) Kayembe E. (International duty) Vata R. (Hamstring Injury) Wiley C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Norwich: Sargent J. (Head Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Norwich won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 34:28. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Norwich won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 2:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Norwich City - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.74%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Norwich City
English League Championship
26.12.25	Norwich City - Charlton Athletic	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Preston North End - Norwich City	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Norwich City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
09.12.25	Sheffield United - Norwich City	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Watford - Norwich City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WTWTL
- Watford FC
English League Championship
26.12.25	Leicester City - Watford	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Watford - Stoke City	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Wrexham - Watford	2:2 ✺
09.12.25	Watford - Sheffield Wednesday	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Watford - Norwich City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
06.12.25	Watford - Norwich City	3:2
English League Cup
12.08.25	Watford - Norwich City	1:2
English League Championship
01.02.25	Watford - Norwich City	0:1
21.09.24	Norwich City - Watford	4:1
13.02.24	Norwich City - Watford	4:2
28.11.23	Watford - Norwich City	3:2
02.01.23	Norwich City - Watford	0:1

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