Match Info

Championship - Round 9

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Vicarage Road (Watford) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Madley A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Finland	17:00	Viaplay
Iceland	14:00	Viaplay
Netherlands	16:00	Viaplay
Norway	16:00	Viaplay
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay
Usa	10:00	Paramount+


	Watford		Burnley

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.50	2.25	Watch
	2.90	3.50	2.30
	2.80	3.40	2.38	Watch
	3.14	3.65	2.34
	2.89	3.61	2.33	Watch
	3.00	3.60	2.30
	2.83	3.58	2.45	Watch
	2.90	3.50	2.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↓ (2.93)	3.54 ↑ (3.49)	2.33 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Watford
32.5%

Draw
26.8%

Burnley
40.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32%

26.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

25.8%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Watford has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Burnley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Watford - Burnley Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Watford will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Burnley will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ravaglia F. (G) 23. Traore O. H. 6. Pollock M. (C) 29. Mlacic B. 3. Coulibaly S. 39. Kayembe E. 5. Kyprianou H. 20. Doumbia M. 17. Bravo I. 21. Nabizada A. 9. Kjerrumgaard L.	37. Coudert G. (G) 2. Walker K. (C) 15. Ahmedhodzic A. 44. Igor 23. Lucas Pires 3. Alleyne M. 5. Hatate R. 19. Ramazani L. 29. Laurent J. 7. Bruun Larsen J. 11. Amdouni Z.
Substitutes
26. Bachmann D. (G) 10. Boadu M. 16. Bola M. 4. Keben K. 7. Maamma O. 45. Mavididi S. 22. Payero M. 11. Vata R. 33. Zemura J.	27. Broja A. 10. Edwards M. 18. Ekdal H. 17. Hountondji A. 14. Roberts C. 12. Satpaev D. 22. Sonne O. 9. Vardy J. 1. Weiss M. (G)
Coaches
Dionisi A.	Hayen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
13', 0 - 1, Bruun Larsen J. ⚽, Hatate R. (A),
19', 0 - 2, Amdouni Z. ⚽,
25', 0 - 3, Hatate R. ⚽, Lucas Pires (A),
35', Bravo I. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Coulibaly S. ↓, Zemura J. ↑,
46', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Payero M. ↑,
60', Nabizada A. ↓, Boadu M. ↑,
62', Amdouni Z. ↓, Edwards M. ↑,
63', Ramazani L. ↓, Vardy J. ↑,
69', Doumbia M. ↓, Vata R. ↑,
74', Bruun Larsen J. ↓, Satpaev D. ↑,
84', Alleyne M. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
87', 0 - 4, Edwards M. ⚽, Lucas Pires (A),

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 20th and 24th in the Relegation - League One).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Watford won 1.

Neither team has been performing at its best in recent fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Watford: Akomeah T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Baah K. (Knock) Bola M. (Hamstring Injury) Bove E. (Knee Injury) Zemura J. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Burnley: Agyei E. (Muscle Injury) Banel J. (Muscle Injury) Barnes A. (Muscle Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Cullen J. (Knee Injury) Ekdal H. (Injury) Humphreys B. (Muscle Injury) Mejbri H. (Hamstring Injury) Ramsey A. (Hamstring Injury) Satpaev D. (Hamstring Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Watford: Ngakia J. (Thigh Injury).

In the last 19 head-to-head meetings, Watford has recorded 4 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:25 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Watford against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 13:16 goals (averaging 1.3:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	10:20	-10	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	17:25	-8	8

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Burnley: 1.13% Watford: 0.66%

Last Results with these Odds

Watford - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 32.04%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Watford FC
English League Championship
18.09.26	Bristol City - Watford	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Watford - Stoke City	1:2 ✺
08.09.26	Watford - Preston North End	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	West Bromwich Albion - Watford	1:0 ✺
01.09.26	Swansea City - Watford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LLWLL
- Burnley FC
English League Championship
19.09.26	Burnley - Derby County	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Swansea City - Burnley	3:1 ✺
08.09.26	Wrexham - Burnley	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Burnley - Bristol City	1:2 ✺
02.09.26	Burnley - Middlesbrough	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
18.04.25	Watford - Burnley	1:2
21.12.24	Burnley - Watford	2:1
14.02.23	Burnley - Watford	1:1
12.08.22	Watford - Burnley	1:0
English Premier League
30.04.22	Watford - Burnley	1:2
05.02.22	Burnley - Watford	0:0
25.06.20	Burnley - Watford	1:0

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