Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 26

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday


	Notaresco		Fossombrone

	1	X	2
	2.22	2.92	3.1
	2.22	3.05	3.17	Watch
	2.2	3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (2.2)	2.99 ↑ (2.96)	3.16 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Notaresco
41%

Draw
30.3%

Fossombrone
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

30.7%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

26.9%

31.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notaresco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Fossombrone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notaresco than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Notaresco - Fossombrone Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', 0 - 1, ⚽,
60', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 and 9).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Notaresco might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notaresco won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 0.6:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Notaresco won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Fossombrone	6	3	1	2	6:9	-3	10
7	Notaresco Calcio	6	2	2	2	6:6	0	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notaresco Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
22.02.26	Maceratese - Notaresco	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Notaresco - Vigor Senigallia	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Chieti - Notaresco	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Notaresco - Giulianova	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Castelfidardo - Notaresco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LTTTL
- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
22.02.26	Fossombrone - Ostia Mare	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Teramo - Fossombrone	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Vigor Senigallia - Fossombrone	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Fossombrone - Sora	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Giulianova - Fossombrone	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
26.10.25	Fossombrone - Notaresco	0:1
02.03.25	Notaresco - Fossombrone	1:0
27.10.24	Fossombrone - Notaresco	1:1
03.03.24	Fossombrone - Notaresco	2:0
28.10.23	Notaresco - Fossombrone	0:0

Notaresco - Fossombrone: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide