Match Info

League Two - Round 4

Date: 20 August 2025, Wednesday

Location: Meadow Lane (Nottingham)

Referee: Drysdale D. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Notts County		Shrewsbury Town

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.6
	1.78	3.5	4.4
	2.08	3.35	3.45
	2.12	3.37	3.64
	1.08	10.06	21.41	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.5
	2.05	3.38	3.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.81)	4.33 ↑ (3.6)	6.37 ↑ (4.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
58.3%

Draw
24.8%

Shrewsbury Town
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

26.1%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

23.5%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Notts County's performance.

Shrewsbury Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Notts County that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shrewsbury Town than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Shrewsbury Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.2%	11.1%	3.7%

Notts County - Shrewsbury Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Notts County (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Notts County will win (23 of 27 users predict this - 85.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.79% – 98.59%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Notts County will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Notts County (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Roos K. (G) 23. Aljofree S. 3. McDonald R. 4. Bedeau J. 37. Cotter B. 8. Norburn O. 18. Palmer M. (C) 25. Tsaroulla N. 10. Jones J. 14. Iorpenda T. 19. Dennis M.	1. Harrison E. (G) 26. Stubbs S. 22. Nsiala A. 4. Anderson T. 5. Boyle W. 10. Sang T. 6. Clucas S. 14. Perry T. 27. Marquis J. (C) 11. Scully A. 9. Lloyd G.
Substitutes
47. Bennetts K. 2. Gordon K. 11. Grant C. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 26. Hall T. 17. Kouhyar Q. 28. Macari L.	8. Biggins H. 38. England I. 17. Gilliead A. 2. Hoole L. 23. Nurse G. 13. Savin T. (G) 24. Stewart C.
Coaches
Paterson M.	Appleton M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Dennis M. ⚽,
12', Norburn O. 🟨,
20', 2 - 0, Aljofree S. ⚽, Dennis M. (A),
32', 2 - 1, Marquis J. ⚽, Stubbs S. (A),
41', Stubbs S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', 3 - 1, Tsaroulla N. ⚽, Jones J. (A),
69', Cotter B. ↓, Gordon K. ↑,
69', Jones J. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
74', Boyle W. ↓, Nurse G. ↑,
74', Scully A. ↓, Stewart C. ↑,
74', Nsiala A. ↓, Hoole L. ↑,
75', Tsaroulla N. ↓, Bennetts K. ↑,
75', Norburn O. ↓, Hall T. ↑,
78', Grant C. 🟨,
81', Gordon K. 🟨,
82', 4 - 1, Grant C. ⚽, Gordon K. (A),
86', Dennis M. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
90', Marquis J. 🟨,
90+3', Nurse G. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 0.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Notts County is the team to beat.

There will not play in Notts County: Robertson S. (Inactive)

There will not play in Shrewsbury: Mata M. A. (Inactive) McDermott T. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Notts County: Jarvis W. (Inactive) Jatta A. (Inactive) Ness L. (Inactive) Traore M. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Notts County won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 2.3:2.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
16.08.25	Barrow - Notts County	2:1 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Wigan Athletic - Notts County	1:0 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Notts County - Salford City	1:2 ✺
02.08.25	Newport County - Notts County	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Notts County - Cardiff City	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTT
- Shrewsbury Town
English League Two
16.08.25	Shrewsbury Town - Colchester United	0:2 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Grimsby Town - Shrewsbury Town	3:1 ✺
English League Two
09.08.25	Tranmere Rovers - Shrewsbury Town	4:0 ✺
02.08.25	Shrewsbury Town - Bromley	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Shrewsbury Town - Burnley	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

English League Cup
13.08.24	Shrewsbury Town - Notts County	4:3 penalties
English FA Cup
01.12.23	Notts County - Shrewsbury Town	2:3
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Shrewsbury Town - Notts County	1:1
English League One
22.02.14	Notts County - Shrewsbury Town	2:3
23.11.13	Shrewsbury Town - Notts County	1:0
26.12.12	Shrewsbury Town - Notts County	2:2
08.09.12	Notts County - Shrewsbury Town	3:2

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