Match Info

League Two - Play Offs - Final

Date: 25 May 2026, Monday

Location: Wembley Stadium (London)

Referee: Reeves T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Notts County		Salford City

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.55	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.65
	2.82	2.98	2.62	Watch
	3.29	2.98	2.57
	3.09	2.96	2.45	Watch
	2.8	2.9	2.5
	2.81	3.22	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.64)	3.03 ↑ (3)	2.54 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Notts County
32.2%

Draw
30.9%

Salford City
36.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.2%

30.9%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

32.7%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Notts County has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Salford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Notts County, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salford City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Notts County - Salford City Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Notts County will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Salford will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Belshaw J. (G) 12. Ness L. 3. McDonald R. (C) 4. Bedeau J. 25. Tsaroulla N. 8. Norburn O. 20. Robertson S. 10. Jones J. 14. Iorpenda T. 16. Luker J. 29. Jatta A.	1. Young M. (G) 19. Mnoga H. 22. Oluwo A. 15. Cooper B. 29. Garbutt L. (C) 26. Graydon R. 18. Butcher M. 17. Austerfield J. 45. Longelo-Mbule R. 21. Cesay K. 23. Udoh D.
Substitutes
47. Bennetts K. 19. Dennis M. 11. Grant C. 21. Griffiths H. (G) 17. Kouhyar Q. 39. Ndlovu L. 18. Palmer M.	16. Borini F. 24. Dorrington A. 14. Harris K. 33. Howard M. (G) 9. Stockton C. 6. Turton O. 7. Woodburn B.
Coaches
Paterson M.	Robinson K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
22', Tsaroulla N. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Jatta A. ⚽, Jones J. (A),
44', Mnoga H. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Ness L. ⚽, McDonald R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Butcher M. ↓, Woodburn B. ↑,
57', Ness L. 🟨,
60', Longelo-Mbule R. ↓, Harris K. ↑,
60', Cooper B. ↓, Borini F. ↑,
68', Luker J. ↓, Grant C. ↑,
70', 3 - 0, Jones J. ⚽, Grant C. (A),
78', Norburn O. ↓, Palmer M. ↑,
85', Austerfield J. ↓, Stockton C. ↑,
86', Jones J. ↓, Kouhyar Q. ↑,
86', Jatta A. ↓, Ndlovu L. ↑,
87', Tsaroulla N. ↓, Bennetts K. ↑,
90+3', Woodburn B. 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Wembley Stadium.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 0.

Notts County has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Salford is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Notts County: Macari L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Salford: Awe Z. (Inactive) Bird J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Edwards T. (Inactive) Rose M. (Leg Injury)

There are questionable in Notts County: Platt M. (Inactive) Tangen H. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Salford: Ashley O. (Inactive) Grant J. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Notts County won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 6:14. (average 0.9:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Notts County won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 1:2.3).

Outrights of English League Two for now

Salford: 19.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Salford	10	6	1	3	15:10	5	19

Last Results with these Odds

Notts County - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.17%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Salford City - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 33.88%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Notts County
English League Two
15.05.26	Notts County - Chesterfield	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Chesterfield - Notts County	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	Notts County - Bristol Rovers	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Colchester United - Notts County	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Notts County - Barnet	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWTWL
- Salford City
English League Two
15.05.26	Salford City - Grimsby Town	2:2 ET ✺
10.05.26	Grimsby Town - Salford City	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Crawley Town - Salford City	0:0 ✺
23.04.26	Salford City - Bromley	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Oldham Athletic - Salford City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LWTWW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
03.04.26	Salford City - Notts County	2:1
09.08.25	Notts County - Salford City	1:2
11.04.25	Notts County - Salford City	1:3
14.12.24	Salford City - Notts County	3:0
23.03.24	Notts County - Salford City	1:2
15.09.23	Salford City - Notts County	0:2
English FA Cup
06.11.15	Salford City - Notts County	2:0

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