Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa Betano do Brasil - 1/32-finals

Date: 5 March 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Janio Moraes (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Nova Iguaçu		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	6	3.5	1.62
	5.75	3.8	1.49
	6	3.5	1.62
	6.11	3.51	1.6
	5.87	3.45	1.59	Watch
	6	3.3	1.62
	5.87	3.56	1.66
	6	3.5	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.95 ↓ (6.37)	3.52 ↓ (4.05)	1.6 ↑ (1.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
15.6%

Draw
26.4%

Vasco da Gama
58%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.6%

23%

62.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.2%

22.4%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vasco da Gama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 11. Andrey 5. Fernandinho 10. Joao Lucas 8. Jorge Pedra 3. Mateus Muller 9. Philippe Costa 2. Renan 6. Sidney Pages (C) 7. Xandinho 4. Yan Silva	1. Leo Jardim (G) 11. Coutinho 25. Hugo Moura 38. Joao Victor 43. Lucas Freitas 6. Lucas Piton 17. Moreira N. 18. Paulinho Paula 96. Paulo Henrique 77. Rayan 99. Vegetti P.
Substitutes
19. Antonio 17. Caio Hones 14. Guilherme Henrique 15. Igor Guilherme 16. Igor Lemos 21. Kauan 18. Kennyd 20. Lucas Cruz 13. Matheus Matias 22. Mayron 12. Pedro Zanette (G)	90. Alex Teixeira 45. Augusto L. 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 15. Garre B. 8. Jair 4. Lemos M. 29. Lucas Oliveira 85. Mateus Carvalho 10. Payet D. 2. Rodriguez J. 20. Sforza J. 12. Victor Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
10', 0 - 1, Rayan ⚽,
19', Sidney Pages 🟨,
21', 0 - 2, Coutinho (Pen),
39', 0 - 3, Coutinho ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Xandinho ↓, Lucas Cruz ↑,
46', Fernandinho ↓, Igor Guilherme ↑,
46', Joao Lucas ↓, Igor Lemos ↑,
63', Hugo Moura ↓, Jair ↑,
63', Moreira N. ↓, Augusto L. ↑,
64', Igor Lemos 🟨,
64', Yan Silva ↓, Guilherme Henrique ↑,
69', Coutinho ↓, Payet D. ↑,
69', Vegetti P. ↓, Garre B. ↑,
81', Andrey ↓, Kennyd ↑,
83', Paulinho Paula ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
86', Guilherme Henrique 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Nova Iguaçu won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Nova Iguaçu could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Nova Iguaçu have a series of guest games.

In this match Vasco is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Nova Iguaçu won 2 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 13:21 (average 1.2:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Nova Iguaçu won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.25	Madureira - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
26.02.25	Barcelona RO - Nova Iguaçu	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.02.25	Nova Iguaçu - Madureira	2:1 ✺
16.02.25	Fluminense - Nova Iguaçu	2:0 ✺
09.02.25	Volta Redonda - Nova Iguaçu	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TWWLT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.03.25	Vasco da Gama - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
18.02.25	União Rondonópolis - Vasco da Gama	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.25	Flamengo - Vasco da Gama	2:0 ✺
10.02.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Vasco da Gama	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
11.01.25	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	1:1
17.03.24	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	1:0
10.03.24	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	1:1
31.01.24	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	2:0
07.02.23	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	0:2
02.02.22	Vasco da Gama - Nova Iguaçu	3:2
13.03.21	Nova Iguaçu - Vasco da Gama	2:2

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