Match Info

BRAZIL: Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Round 9

Date: 10 February 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio Governador João Castelo (São Luís)

Referee: Arleu B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Canais Globo, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sampaio Corrêa FE		Vasco da Gama

	1	X	2
	6	3.75	1.5	Watch
	6.89	3.98	1.48
	7.09	3.87	1.5	Watch
	7.7	3.91	1.46	Watch
	6	3.75	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.74 ↓ (7.13)	3.85 ↓ (4.13)	1.49 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sampaio Corrêa FE
13.7%

Draw
24%

Vasco da Gama
62.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13%

22.4%

64.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.4%

21.4%

67.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sampaio Corrêa FE has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Vasco da Gama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sampaio Corrêa FE than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vasco da Gama than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vasco da Gama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sampaio Corrêa FE - Vasco da Gama Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ze Carlos (G) 2. Lucas Carvalho 3. Daniel Nunes 24. Eduardo Thuram 23. Guilherme 25. Pablo 8. Alexandre Souza 11. Ryan Silva 7. Max 9. Elias (C) 10. Rafael Pernao	1. Leo Jardim (G) 96. Paulo Henrique 38. Joao Victor 29. Lucas Oliveira 6. Lucas Piton 8. Jair 25. Hugo Moura 3. Tche Tche 10. Payet D. 30. Lukas Zuccarello 99. Vegetti P. (C)
Substitutes
22. Alan 14. Anderson Penna 21. Cristiano 19. Cruz Manhaes O. 12. Diogo (G) 13. Eliandro 15. Gabriel Agu 16. Luan Gama 18. Matheus Iacovelli 17. Rodrigo Dantas 20. Vinicius Kanu 31. Ze (G)	16. Alegria 90. Alex Teixeira 72. Bruno Lopes 13. Daniel Fuzato (G) 26. Dominguez M. 70. Euder 21. Jean David 43. Lucas Freitas 85. Mateus Carvalho 2. Rodriguez J. 5. Souza 12. Victor Luis
Coaches
Sampaio A.	Fabio Carille

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Joao Victor 🟨,
11', Lukas Zuccarello 🟨,
45+3', Lucas Carvalho ↓, Eliandro ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Pablo 🟨,
62', Tche Tche ↓, Alegria ↑,
62', Jair ↓, Mateus Carvalho ↑,
62', Ryan Silva ↓, Luan Gama ↑,
68', Rafael Pernao 🟨,
72', Lukas Zuccarello ↓, Jean David ↑,
72', Lucas Oliveira ↓, Lucas Freitas ↑,
79', Hugo Moura ↓, Dominguez M. ↑,
85', Pablo ↓, Rodrigo Dantas ↑,
85', Alexandre Souza ↓, Cruz Manhaes O. ↑,
86', Elias ↓, Matheus Iacovelli ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Rio: Semi~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Carioca (Taca Guanabara ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent matches Sampaio Corrêa is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Vasco is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Sampaio Corrêa have a series of guest games.

Recently Vasco have a series of home games.

In this match Vasco is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sampaio Corrêa won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:3

Including matches at home between the teams Sampaio Corrêa won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sampaio Corrêa FE
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
06.02.25	Madureira - Sampaio Corrêa FE	0:1 ✺
02.02.25	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Bangu	3:0 ✺
30.01.25	Flamengo - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:0 ✺
26.01.25	Maricá - Sampaio Corrêa FE	2:2 ✺
23.01.25	Boavista - Sampaio Corrêa FE	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWLTT
- Vasco da Gama
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
05.02.25	Vasco da Gama - Fluminense	1:2 ✺
01.02.25	Vasco da Gama - Volta Redonda	2:2 ✺
29.01.25	Maricá - Vasco da Gama	0:1 ✺
26.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Portuguesa RJ	4:1 ✺
23.01.25	Vasco da Gama - Madureira	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.01.24	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Vasco da Gama	3:3

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