Match Info

Serie D - Round 11

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Janio Moraes (Rio de Janeiro)


	Nova Iguaçu		Pouso Alegre

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.2	3.5
	2.38	2.88	2.92
	2.47	2.83	2.92
				Watch
	2.44	2.88	2.94
	1.91	3.2	3.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.88)	3 ↓ (3.3)	3.16 ↓ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Nova Iguaçu
40.9%

Draw
30.3%

Pouso Alegre
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

27.3%

24.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.9%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nova Iguaçu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nova Iguaçu's form might have worsened.

Pouso Alegre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Iguaçu than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nova Iguaçu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pouso Alegre than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Nova Iguaçu - Pouso Alegre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
72', 1 - 0, Thomasel ⚽,
82', 2 - 0, Sidney Pages ⚽,
88', 2 - 1, ⚽,
90+2', 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Nova Iguaçu might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nova Iguaçu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nova Iguaçu
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.25	Boavista - Nova Iguaçu	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Nova Iguaçu - Rio Branco AC ES	0:0 ✺
07.06.25	Portuguesa - Nova Iguaçu	1:0 ✺
31.05.25	Nova Iguaçu - Portuguesa	1:1 ✺
24.05.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Nova Iguaçu	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTLTW
- Pouso Alegre FC
Brazilian Serie D
28.06.25	Pouso Alegre - Maricá	1:1 ✺
14.06.25	Pouso Alegre - Portuguesa	2:0 ✺
04.06.25	Rio Branco AC ES - Pouso Alegre	3:0 ✺
31.05.25	Pouso Alegre - Rio Branco AC ES	1:0 ✺
24.05.25	Portuguesa - Pouso Alegre	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
10.05.25	Pouso Alegre - Nova Iguaçu	1:0

Nova Iguaçu - Pouso Alegre: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide