Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 25

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Numancia		Burgos Promesas

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.05	6.7
	1.51	3.85	6.7
	1.36	4.5	7.71	Watch
	1.44	3.75	6.5
	1.57	3.76	6.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.41)	3.98 ↑ (3.9)	6.72 ↓ (7.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Numancia
63.2%

Draw
23.1%

Burgos Promesas
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

23.3%

12.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

16.3%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Numancia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Burgos Promesas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (-18.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Numancia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos Promesas than the current prediction. (+4%)

Numancia - Burgos Promesas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, Juancho ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Pena W. 🟥,
90+2', 2 - 0, Juancho ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Numancia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Burgos Promesas has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Burgos Promesas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Numancia is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Numancia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Numancia
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
22.02.26	Deportivo A Coruña B - Numancia	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Numancia - UD Ourense	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Salamanca - Numancia	1:1 ✺
01.02.26	Numancia - Lealtad	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Gimnástica Segoviana - Numancia	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWTLT
- Burgos Promesas
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
21.02.26	Burgos Promesas - Real Ávila	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Langreo - Burgos Promesas	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Burgos Promesas - Real Oviedo B	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	UD Ourense - Burgos Promesas	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Burgos Promesas - Sarriana	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
22.11.25	Burgos Promesas - Numancia	0:1

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