Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 21

Date: 1 February 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub


	Numancia		Lealtad

	1	X	2
	1.34	4.25	7.5
	1.37	4.51	8.44
	1.33	4.64	8.16	Watch
	1.36	4.2	7.5
	1.42	4.65	6.7
	1.35	4.33	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.42)	4.43 ↑ (4)	7.8 ↑ (6.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Numancia
67.5%

Draw
20.7%

Lealtad
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

22.6%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.7%

19.7%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Numancia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Lealtad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Numancia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lealtad than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Numancia - Lealtad Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Numancia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Alvarez J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Numancia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lealtad has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Numancia is the obvious favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Numancia won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Numancia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Numancia
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
25.01.26	Gimnástica Segoviana - Numancia	0:0 ✺
18.01.26	Numancia - Bergantiños	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Rayo Cantabria - Numancia	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	Numancia - Real Oviedo B	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	Atlético Astorga - Numancia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 TWTLL
- CD Lealtad
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
25.01.26	Lealtad - Real Ávila	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Marino de Luanco - Lealtad	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Lealtad - Sarriana	3:1 ✺
04.01.26	Gimnástica Segoviana - Lealtad	2:1 ✺
20.12.25	Lealtad - Salamanca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
06.09.25	Lealtad - Numancia	1:1
27.02.21	Lealtad - Numancia	1:1
08.11.20	Numancia - Lealtad	1:0

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