Match Info
Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 23Date: 15 February 2026, SundayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
|---|
 Spain | Footballclub |
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
Numancia |
|
UD Ourense |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.82 |
3.15 |
4.05 |
|
 |
1.8 |
3.26 |
4.8 |
|
 |
1.79 |
3.35 |
4.33 |
 Watch |
 |
1.85 |
3.1 |
3.9 |
|
 |
1.86 |
3.42 |
4.15 |
|
 |
1.75 |
3.25 |
4.75 |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.81 ↓
(2.17) |
3.26 ↑
(2.99) |
4.33 ↑
(3.22) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Numancia
50.6% | Draw
28.2% | UD Ourense
21.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Numancia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Numancia's performance.UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UD Ourense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (-6.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Numancia that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UD Ourense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Numancia - UD Ourense Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Numancia will win (votes: 3 - 75%). UD Ourense will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Numancia (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 13', 1 - 0, Lucas Rey N. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 78', 1 - 1, de Prado S. ⚽,
- 86', 2 - 1, Juancho ⚽,
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).Numancia has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).UD Ourense is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3). In this match, Numancia is a strong favorite.In the last 1 head-to-head match, Numancia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.
Last Results with these Odds
Numancia - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 41.62%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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