Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 1

Date: 22 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.65	3.6
	2.37	2.6	3.4
	2.38	2.62	3.6
	2.5	2.6	3.94
	2.4	2.64	3.74	Watch
	2.4	2.6	3.1
	2.37	2.64	3.67
	2	3.15	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (1.98)	2.69 ↓ (3.13)	3.61 ↓ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
39.6%

Draw
34.6%

Criciúma
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

29.4%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

28.1%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 25. Mateus Silva 23. Igor Fernandes 6. Yuri 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel 11. Juninho 10. Dodo 22. Vitinho 7. Vinicius (C)	1. Alisson (G) 34. Bruno Alves 3. Rodrigo (C) 37. Cesar Martins 6. Marcinho 41. Jean Irmer 5. Eduardo 22. Marcelo Hermes 10. Jhonata Robert 13. Waguininho 91. Otero R.
Substitutes
5. Auremir 3. Betao 30. Felipe Cardoso 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 46. Gustavo Henrique 99. Isaque Ferreira 20. Kevyn Santos 66. Leo Jance 40. Ramon 93. Reginaldo 31. Rosa M. 43. Wanderson	32. Airton (G) 77. Diego Goncalves 7. Fellipe Mateus 31. Hiago Alves 21. Joao Carlos 2. Leo Mana 4. Luciano Castan 9. Nicolas 43. Ruan Carvalho 50. Thiaguinho 97. Willean Lepo
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Waguininho ⚽, Marcelo Hermes (A),
19', Igor Fernandes 🟨,
34', Eduardo 🟨,
35', Arnaldo 🟨,
38', Vinicius 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Eduardo ↓, Thiaguinho ↑,
46', Otero R. ↓, Diego Goncalves ↑,
46', Yuri ↓, Leo Jance ↑,
46', Igor Fernandes ↓, Betao ↑,
48', Helio dos Anjos 🟨,
50', Samuel 🟥,
56', Marcinho ↓, Willean Lepo ↑,
60', Bruno Alves 🟨,
62', Juninho ↓, Felipe Cardoso ↑,
68', Jean Irmer ↓, Fellipe Mateus ↑,
70', Vitinho ↓, Ramon ↑,
72', Jhonata Robert ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
79', Dodo ↓, Rosa M. ↑,
82', Thiaguinho 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 0.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Náutico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Náutico will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Criciúma: Caue (Achilles Tendon Injury) Heitor Roca (Knee Injury) Kaua Moroso (Back Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 0.5:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Criciuma: 5.88% Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	0:3 ✺
01.03.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	3:3 ✺
22.02.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:0 ✺
11.02.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Vitória das Tabocas - Náutico Capibaribe	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LTWWW
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
07.03.26	Criciúma - Camboriú	4:2 penalties ✺
04.03.26	Camboriú - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Brusque - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Criciúma - Concórdia	4:0 ✺
12.02.26	Concórdia - Criciúma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
07.10.22	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
29.06.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	1:1
14.11.17	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
29.07.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	1:2
20.08.16	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	0:1
14.05.16	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
01.09.15	Criciúma - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0

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