Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Parnu Rannastaadion (Parnu)

Referee: Ellefsen J. H. (Fai)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Estonia	Soccernet TV
Germany	Laola1
United-kingdom	Solidsport TV
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Nõmme Kalju		Shelbourne

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.75	1.90	Watch
	3.25	3.50	1.98
	3.15	3.70	2.04	Watch
	3.55	3.57	1.98
	3.31	3.5	2.1	Watch
	3.45	3.45	1.94
	3.40	3.92	1.99	Watch
	3.40	3.60	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.35 ↑ (2.94)	3.62 ↓ (3.73)	1.99 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nõmme Kalju
27.7%

Draw
25.6%

Shelbourne
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

25.2%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

24.7%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Shelbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shelbourne than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
31.6%	31.6%	36.8%

Nõmme Kalju - Shelbourne Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Nõmme Kalju will win (votes: 6 - 31.6%). Shelbourne will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 31.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shelbourne: 15.1% – 58.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Perk H. (C) 78. Mashchenko D. 50. Podholjuzin M. 46. Vukusic R. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 26. Siht R. 8. Musolitin O. 59. Vastsuk B. 21. Baptista T. 11. Orlov M. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E.	19. Beach E. (G) 25. Mbeng M. 4. Ledwidge K. 29. Barrett P. (C) 18. Norris J. 17. Kelly D. 23. McInroy K. 14. Coote A. 27. Caffrey E. 20. Freitas R. 22. Moore S.
Substitutes
52. Idalecio 10. Ivanov N. 30. Jabir I. 74. Jekimov F. 5. Korre U. 22. Nikolajev A. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 88. Sotsugov D. 20. Tambedou M. 7. Tarassenkov D.	15. Bone S. 16. Casey O. 2. Gannon S. 36. Jarvis W. 13. Johnson M. (G) 6. Lunney J. 73. Moylan F. (G) 44. Ring D. 55. Roche J. 56. Wuna J.
Coaches
Andreev N.	Russell J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Kelly D. ⚽,
31', Musolitin O. 🟥,
42', Kelly D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Mashchenko D. ↓, Sotsugov D. ↑,
46', Kelly D. ↓, Jarvis W. ↑,
46', Barrett P. ↓, Casey O. ↑,
46', Freitas R. ↓, Ring D. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Lotar Eyang E. E. ⚽, Perk H. (A),
62', Orlov M. ↓, Jabir I. ↑,
62', Baptista T. ↓, Ivanov N. ↑,
63', McInroy K. ↓, Lunney J. ↑,
67', Borolinstsikov A. ↓, Nikolajev A. ↑,
73', Norris J. ↓, Gannon S. ↑,
74', Vastsuk B. ↓, Tambedou M. ↑,
75', 2 - 1, Jabir I. ⚽, Ivanov N. (A),
77', Lunney J. 🟨,
78', Tambedou M. 🟨,
90', Andreev N. 🟨,
90+1', Ring D. 🟨,
90+2', Ivanov N. 🟨,
90+2', Jabir I. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 2-5. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Parnu Rannastaadion.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Nõmme Kalju may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Nõmme Kalju has had a series of away games.

Shelbourne could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Nõmme Kalju won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nõmme Kalju FC
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Shelbourne - Nõmme Kalju	5:2 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
19.07.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Linfield - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
09.07.26	Nõmme Kalju - Linfield	1:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
03.07.26	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 LTTWW
- Shelbourne
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Shelbourne - Nõmme Kalju	5:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
17.07.26	Kerry - Shelbourne	3:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
07.07.26	Shelbourne - Celtic	1:1 ✺
Irish Premier Division
03.07.26	Shelbourne - Dundalk	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Sligo Rovers - Shelbourne	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
23.07.26	Shelbourne - Nõmme Kalju	5:2

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