Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 July 2026, Thursday

Location: Tolka Park (Dublin)

Referee: Szabolcs K. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


World	LOI TV, OneFootball TV


	Shelbourne		Nõmme Kalju

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.90	5.75	Watch
	1.49	3.90	6.25
	1.38	4.35	8.00
	1.50	3.90	7.54
	1.00	26.48	50.00	Watch
	1.48	3.55	7.45
	1.54	4.15	6.12	Watch
	1.49	4.00	6.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.45)	6.78 ↑ (4.05)	12.21 ↑ (6.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Shelbourne
75.5%

Draw
15.8%

Nõmme Kalju
8.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

22.4%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

23%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shelbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shelbourne's performance.

Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nõmme Kalju might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shelbourne than the current prediction. (-11.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shelbourne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nõmme Kalju could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Shelbourne - Nõmme Kalju Predictions

Users Predictions: Shelbourne will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Beach E. (G) 25. Mbeng M. 29. Barrett P. (C) 4. Ledwidge K. 18. Norris J. 22. Moore S. 27. Caffrey E. 21. Henry-Francis J. 14. Coote A. 20. Freitas R. 17. Kelly D.	1. Perk H. (C) 78. Mashchenko D. 50. Podholjuzin M. 46. Vukusic R. 22. Nikolajev A. 26. Siht R. 20. Tambedou M. 8. Musolitin O. 59. Vastsuk B. 10. Ivanov N. 17. Lotar Eyang E. E.
Substitutes
15. Bone S. 2. Gannon S. 36. Jarvis W. 13. Johnson M. (G) 6. Lunney J. 23. McInroy K. 44. Ring D. 55. Roche J. 60. Ryan C. 56. Wuna J.	21. Baptista T. 4. Borolinstsikov A. 9. Godwin C. 52. Idalecio 30. Jabir I. 5. Korre U. 11. Orlov M. 69. Pavlov M. (G) 88. Sotsugov D. 7. Tarassenkov D.
Coaches
Russell J.	Andreev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Freitas R. ⚽, Moore S. (A),
7', Podholjuzin M. 🟨,
21', 2 - 0, Moore S. ⚽, Caffrey E. (A),
25', 3 - 0, Coote A. ⚽, Freitas R. (A),
30', Podholjuzin M. ↓, Baptista T. ↑,
40', 3 - 1, Lotar Eyang E. E. ⚽, Ivanov N. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
47', 4 - 1, Moore S. ⚽, Kelly D. (A),
58', Nikolajev A. ↓, Borolinstsikov A. ↑,
59', Ivanov N. ↓, Orlov M. ↑,
66', Coote A. ↓, McInroy K. ↑,
75', Moore S. ↓, Jarvis W. ↑,
78', Vastsuk B. ↓, Sotsugov D. ↑,
81', Freitas R. ↓, Ring D. ↑,
81', Henry-Francis J. ↓, Lunney J. ↑,
81', Ledwidge K. ↓, Bone S. ↑,
89', 5 - 1, Ring D. ⚽,
90+1', 5 - 2, Lotar Eyang E. E. ⚽, Siht R. (A),

Preview

First leg.

Shelbourne has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nõmme Kalju is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Shelbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Shelbourne is the undeniable favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shelbourne
Irish FAI Cup
17.07.26	Kerry - Shelbourne	3:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
07.07.26	Shelbourne - Celtic	1:1 ✺
Irish Premier Division
03.07.26	Shelbourne - Dundalk	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Sligo Rovers - Shelbourne	2:2 ✺
22.06.26	Shelbourne - Bohemians Dublin	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LTWTL
- Nõmme Kalju FC
Estonian Meistriliiga
19.07.26	Kuressaare - Nõmme Kalju	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Linfield - Nõmme Kalju	2:2 ✺
09.07.26	Nõmme Kalju - Linfield	1:0 ✺
Estonian Meistriliiga
03.07.26	Nõmme United - Nõmme Kalju	1:3 ✺
28.06.26	Nõmme Kalju - Paide LM	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TTWWT

Upcoming Matches