Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Max-Morlock-Stadion (Nuremberg)

Referee: Oldhafer K. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Nürnberg		Elversberg

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.7	Watch
	2.52	3.3	2.58	Watch
	2.61	3.48	2.61	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.63
	2.48	3.54	2.73	Watch
	2.6	3.33	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (3.08)	3.38 ↓ (3.67)	2.65 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nürnberg
36.9%

Draw
27.7%

Elversberg
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.7%

25.8%

43.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

26.1%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nürnberg's performance.

Elversberg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Elversberg might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nürnberg that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Elversberg could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	28.6%	35.7%

Nürnberg - Elversberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Nürnberg will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Elversberg will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nürnberg: 10.6% – 60.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Nürnberg (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Nürnberg (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Reichert J. (G) 15. Drexler T. 4. Gruber F. (C) 24. Lochoshvili L. 21. Yilmaz B. 6. Markhiev A. 25. Becker F. O. 18. Lubach R. 10. Justvan J. 39. Scobel P. 23. Zoma M. A.	20. Kristof N. (G) 43. Seifert L. 19. Pinckert L. (C) 31. Rohr M. 21. Gunther L. 17. Schmahl F. 8. Poreba L. 25. Petkov L. 29. Zimmerschied T. 14. Malanga J. 42. Mokwa Ntusu D.
Substitutes
5. Baack T. 7. Biron M. 17. Chaikhoun A. 32. Janisch T. 44. Karafiat O. 31. Knoche R. 37. Maboulou N. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 41. Porstner E.	15. Adam R. 28. Boss T. (G) 6. Conde A. 30. Gyamerah J. 3. Le Joncour F. 2. Mickelson N. 24. Schnellbacher L. 23. Sickinger C. 9. Stange O.
Coaches
Klose M.	Wagner V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
27', Zoma M. A. 🟨,
39', 0 - 1, Zimmerschied T. ⚽, Gunther L. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
54', Keidel F. 🟨,
56', 1 - 1, Justvan J. ⚽, Yilmaz B. (A),
59', Petkov L. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Malanga J. ⚽, Gunther L. (A),
67', Markhiev A. 🟨,
69', Scobel P. 🟨,
71', 2 - 2, Scobel P. ⚽,
72', Mokwa Ntusu D. ↓, Conde A. ↑,
72', Keidel F. ↓, Gyamerah J. ↑,
79', Drexler T. ↓, Janisch T. ↑,
80', Zoma M. A. ↓, Maboulou N. ↑,
81', Yilmaz B. 🟨,
83', Lochoshvili L. 🟨,
83', Klose M. 🟨,
84', Klose M. 🟨,
85', Stange O. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Lubach R. ↓, Baack T. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Scobel P. ⚽, Yilmaz B. (A),
90+4', Schmahl F. ↓, Schnellbacher L. ↑,
90+4', Zimmerschied T. ↓, Adam R. ↑,
90+4', Gruber F. ↓, Knoche R. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga).

Nürnberg has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Elversberg is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Elversberg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Nürnberg: Grzywacz E. (Knee Injury) Koudossou H. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Elversberg: Dragon P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Nürnberg: Justvan J. (Illness) Porstner E. (Illness) Zoma M. A. (Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nürnberg won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Nürnberg won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Nurnberg: 14.5%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Nurnberg	6	5	1	0	16:6	10	16

Last Results with these Odds

Nürnberg - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 30.69%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Elversberg - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.56%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
21.12.25	Nürnberg - Hannover	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Schalke 04 - Nürnberg	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Nürnberg - Greuther Fürth	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Magdeburg - Nürnberg	3:0 ✺
23.11.25	Nürnberg - Arminia Bielefeld	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLTLW
- SV Elversberg
German 2 Bundesliga
21.12.25	Preußen Münster - Elversberg	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Elversberg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Elversberg - Darmstadt	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Karlsruher - Elversberg	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
02.08.25	Elversberg - Nürnberg	1:0
04.05.25	Nürnberg - Elversberg	1:3
06.12.24	Elversberg - Nürnberg	2:1
11.05.24	Nürnberg - Elversberg	3:0
10.12.23	Elversberg - Nürnberg	0:1

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