Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen)

Referee: Dingert C. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Schalke 04		Nürnberg

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.85	3.55	3.85	Watch
	1.96	3.65	4.22
	1.88	3.65	4.07	Watch
	1.85	3.4	3.9
	1.88	3.75	3.95	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.67)	3.6 ↓ (3.97)	3.98 ↓ (4.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Schalke 04
50.1%

Draw
26.2%

Nürnberg
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.6%

23.8%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.2%

23.1%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Schalke 04 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Schalke 04's form might have worsened.

Nürnberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Schalke 04, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nürnberg than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	16.7%	13.3%

Schalke 04 - Nürnberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Schalke will win (votes: 21 - 70%). Nürnberg will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schalke: 53.6% – 86.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Schalke (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Schalke (1.38) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Schalke (2.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Schalke (1.23) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Schalke (votes: 9 - 81.8%). Tie (votes: 2 - 18.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karius L. (G) 43. Ayhan M. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 35. Wallentowitz M. 23. El-Faouzi S. 6. Schallenberg R. 33. Becker V. 18. Antwi-Adjei C. 19. Karaman K. 9. Sylla M.	1. Reichert J. (G) 15. Drexler T. 4. Gruber F. 24. Lochoshvili L. 21. Yilmaz B. 6. Markhiev A. 25. Becker F. O. 18. Lubach R. 10. Justvan J. 33. Grimaldi A. 23. Zoma M. A.
Substitutes
5. Becker T. 7. Gomis C. 41. Matriciani H. 32. Podlech L. (G) 46. Popperl P. 27. Porath F. 2. Sanchez F. 8. Younes A. 16. Zalazar M.	5. Baack T. 20. Demba P. 31. Knoche R. 37. Maboulou N. 26. Mathenia C. (G) 41. Porstner E. 39. Scobel P. 11. Stepanov A. 27. von der Hitz J.
Coaches
Muslic M.	Klose M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Lochoshvili L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Wallentowitz M. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
46', Antwi-Adjei C. ↓, Gomis C. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Becker V. ⚽, Karaman K. (A),
54', Kurucay H. 🟨,
66', Schallenberg R. 🟨,
76', Becker F. O. ↓, Stepanov A. ↑,
77', Kurucay H. ↓, Becker T. ↑,
77', Schallenberg R. ↓, Popperl P. ↑,
86', Becker V. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
87', Markhiev A. 🟨,
89', Grimaldi A. ↓, Scobel P. ↑,
89', Drexler T. ↓, Baack T. ↑,
90+5', Lubach R. 🟨,
90+5', Gomis C. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Schalke won 3.

Now, both teams are in good form.

Schalke may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Schalke is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Schalke: Amoussou-Tchibara Z. (Knee Injury) Becker T. (Knee Injury) Donkor A. (Inactive) Gantenbein A. (Inactive) Heekeren J. (Inactive) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Lacking Match Fitness) Remmert P. (Inactive) Younes A. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Nürnberg: Grzywacz E. (Knee Injury) Koudossou H. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Schalke: Schallenberg R. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Nürnberg: Danilo Soares (Surgery)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Schalke won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:21. (average 1.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Schalke won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:6. (average 2.7:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
05.12.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Preußen Münster - Schalke 04	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
13.11.25	Twente - Schalke 04	1:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
08.11.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWTLW
- 1. FC Nürnberg
German 2 Bundesliga
07.12.25	Nürnberg - Greuther Fürth	2:2 ✺
29.11.25	Magdeburg - Nürnberg	3:0 ✺
23.11.25	Nürnberg - Arminia Bielefeld	2:0 ✺
07.11.25	Dynamo Dresden - Nürnberg	1:2 ✺
01.11.25	Nürnberg - Eintracht Braunschweig	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
25.01.25	Schalke 04 - Nürnberg	3:1
10.08.24	Nürnberg - Schalke 04	3:1
13.04.24	Schalke 04 - Nürnberg	2:0
04.11.23	Nürnberg - Schalke 04	1:2
Club Friendly
10.01.23	Schalke 04 - Nürnberg	0:1
German 2 Bundesliga
15.05.22	Nürnberg - Schalke 04	1:2
10.12.21	Schalke 04 - Nürnberg	4:1

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