Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 15

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn)

Referee: Hartmann R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Paderborn		Elversberg

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.5	2.55	Watch
	2.42	3.4	2.68	Watch
	2.63	3.61	2.7
	2.45	3.59	2.74	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.63
	2.5	3.53	2.71	Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (1.93)	3.49 ↓ (3.63)	2.66 ↓ (3.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paderborn
37.5%

Draw
27%

Elversberg
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

25.5%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

23%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Paderborn's form might have worsened.

Elversberg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Elversberg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Paderborn, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elversberg than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Elversberg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	20%	26.7%

Paderborn - Elversberg Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Paderborn will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Elversberg will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Elversberg (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Paderborn (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 1 - 20%). Elversberg (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Seimen D. (G) 20. Gotze F. 25. Scheller T. 4. Brackelmann C. 18. Worner M. 22. Hansen M. 14. Baur M. 23. Obermair R. 9. Batzner N. 26. Klaas S. 27. Tigges S.	20. Kristof N. (G) 30. Gyamerah J. 19. Pinckert L. (C) 3. Le Joncour F. 21. Gunther L. 17. Schmahl F. 8. Poreba L. 25. Petkov L. 10. Conte B. 29. Zimmerschied T. 22. Ebnoutalib Y.
Substitutes
7. Bilbija F. 5. Castaneda S. 28. Copado L. 6. Engelns L. 30. Marino S. 11. Michel S. 2. Muller R. 1. Schubert M. (G) 3. Sticker J.	28. Boss T. (G) 6. Conde A. 7. Feil M. 43. Keidel F. 14. Malanga J. 32. Pantschenko D. 24. Schnellbacher L. 23. Sickinger C. 9. Stange O.
Coaches
Kettemann R.	Wagner V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Ebnoutalib Y. ⚽, Zimmerschied T. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Hansen M. ↓, Muller R. ↑,
46', Gunther L. ↓, Keidel F. ↑,
46', Worner M. ↓, Michel S. ↑,
48', Batzner N. 🟨,
52', 1 - 1, Michel S. ⚽, Muller R. (A),
58', Brackelmann C. 🟥,
60', Batzner N. ↓, Sticker J. ↑,
73', Obermair R. 🟨,
76', 1 - 2, Schmahl F. ⚽,
77', Zimmerschied T. ↓, Malanga J. ↑,
80', Tigges S. ↓, Marino S. ↑,
80', Klaas S. ↓, Bilbija F. ↑,
81', Schmahl F. ↓, Conde A. ↑,
87', Muller R. 🟨,
90', Ebnoutalib Y. ↓, Schnellbacher L. ↑,
90', Petkov L. ↓, Stange O. ↑,
90+6', Stange O. 🟨,
90+10', Michel S. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga and 4).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Elversberg may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Paderborn: Curda L. (Yellow Cards) Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury) Muller R. (Injury)

There will not play in Elversberg: Dragon P. (Knee Injury) Pfeiffer L. (Foot Injury) Seifert L. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Elversberg: Feil M. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Paderborn won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Paderborn won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Paderborn 07
German 2 Bundesliga
28.11.25	Schalke 04 - Paderborn	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Paderborn - Hannover	0:2 ✺
09.11.25	Magdeburg - Paderborn	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Paderborn - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
29.10.25	Paderborn - Bayer Leverkusen	2:4 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLWWL
- SV Elversberg
German 2 Bundesliga
30.11.25	Elversberg - Darmstadt	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Karlsruher - Elversberg	2:3 ✺
08.11.25	Schalke 04 - Elversberg	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Elversberg - Hannover	2:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
28.10.25	Hertha Berlin - Elversberg	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
26.04.25	Paderborn - Elversberg	1:1
30.11.24	Elversberg - Paderborn	1:3
27.04.24	Paderborn - Elversberg	3:1
25.11.23	Elversberg - Paderborn	4:1

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